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Trends in personal consumption in the United States

2019-03-12 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Essay范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- Trends in personal consumption in the United States,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国个人消费的趋势。美国个人消费的迅猛增长,是一系列制度条件和历史发展促成的,这包括美国的政治、经济和社会制度特点。从短期看,美国个人消费必然会回升,但从长期看,美国市场的容量尽管仍然会居世界之首,但其重要性和稳定性将不如既往,个人消费增长前景比较黯淡。

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The rapid growth of personal consumption in the United States is the result of a series of institutional conditions and historical development. This includes the political, economic and social system characteristics of the United States, the international political and economic status of the United States after the World War II, and a series of state intervention policies adopted by the United States after the great depression of the 1930s, especially after the war.

Specifically, the United States federal pluralistic political system, free market economy, an open immigration policy, individualism and encourage new cultural spirit and system, laid a strong it promote the people rich and abound the basic system of the people, and these factors make personal income and consumption to rise by with national economic growth.

In addition, before and after the second world war, the United States, due to its favorable political and economic conditions, not only won the industrial status of the world's factory, but also replaced gold as the standard currency for international economic settlement. This unparalleled economic status enables it to make full use of and enjoy the economic benefits of free trade and economic globalization, and turn the world into the source and consumer of resources for its economic growth. Even the formation and evolution of the two cold war camps did not change this basic reality. Although the economic status of the United States was greatly impacted in the 1970s, with the end of the cold war, the rise of new scientific and technological revolution and the global marketization process, the economic and consumption growth of the United States gained new stimulation and impetus, which contributed to the economic and consumption prosperity of the United States in the past 20 years.

Finally, America's postwar domestic political and economic policies provided the driving force for the growth of American consumption. Kennedy's "new frontier" and Johnson's "great society" inherited and expanded the main contents of the social welfare policies in Roosevelt's New Deal before the war, and the rapid growth of labor union power after the war promoted the balanced distribution of social wealth and the rise of the middle class, and improved the consumption ability and desire of individuals. In a sense, consumption in the concept seems to be not only subject to the ability of a satisfaction, but also a social right. These backgrounds constitute the external factors that influence our understanding of the consumption model of the American economy.

Economists differ on the underlying factors that explain macroconsumption. In order to simplify the analysis, we take Keynes' model as the basis and combine with the subsequent development of consumption theory to discuss the main driving force of consumption growth and its changes in the postwar American economy from the perspective of induced consumption and automatic consumption.

The level of wealth that drives consumption is largely determined by disposable income and personal assets. The former is subject to employment levels, productivity, wages and tax policies and regulations, while the latter is directly reflected in personal property, such as property and stocks.

After the World War II, America became so highly productive that John Kenneth Galbraith, in his 1958 book the affluent society, criticized the United States for its excessive emphasis on production. The increase in productivity produced economic prosperity. As Charles r. ris put it, Americans in the 1950s and 1960s considered the golden age: rising wages, the introduction of pensions and health care in most companies, property ownership in good school districts, and the realization of many American dreams. Since the economic turmoil in the 1970s, the United States has experienced the Reagan economic revolution in the 1980s and the recovery of industrial status, as well as the high-tech revolution in the 1990s. With housing prices soaring and the stock market soaring, consumer confidence is naturally rising. Although many studies have pointed out that during this period, the social inequality in the United States has become increasingly prominent, and the middle class has not received corresponding benefits, it cannot be denied that all social classes have benefited from economic growth through the national fiscal policy.

Consumption rises with income and wealth. There has been a relatively stable relationship between wealth accumulation and consumption growth in American society. Personal consumption remained at about 50 per cent of disposable income from the 1960s to the mid-1980s. It is worth noting that this ratio has changed significantly since the late 1980s, when consumption began to approach and then exceed disposable income. Personal consumption accounted for about 50% of disposable income in the 1980s, and about 80% in the mid-1990s. By 2008, it had soared to about 120% of disposable income! Thus, the growth of personal consumption in the United States has reached its peak in the last 20 years. Although it experienced a brief period of negative year-on-year growth during the tech bust and the post-9/11 recession, it was the rapid recovery in consumption growth that led to a strong rebound in the us economy.

The accumulation of wealth has also been hit hard by the economic crisis. By 2008, home prices in America had fallen by an average of 35% from their 2005 peak. Although prices have recovered since March 2009, they are only now back to 2001 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. Therefore, in the short term, the residential real estate market is still very weak. While the Obama administration has made reducing home mortgage defaults and foreclosures an important aspect of its economic policy, the trend has not been effectively controlled, climbing from 12% in early 2009 to nearly 15% in the third quarter. Moreover, nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers have so far borrowed more than the market value of their homes. On the other hand, U.S. stocks are starting to recover, but overall risk remains high. The rising savings rate reflects Americans' continued caution about what to do with the rest of their money, and their lack of willingness to take on new risks. Of course, with the full recovery of American economy and the continuous recovery of the stock market, consumption will inevitably increase. However, in the short to medium term, induced consumption will remain weak.

The job market, while not deteriorating, has yet to pick up. About 7m non-farm jobs have been lost between January 2008 and October 2009. While conditions have gradually improved since January 2009, the decline in non-farm jobs is expected to continue at least through the end of the year. Moreover, the unemployment rate continued to rise in 2009, reaching 10.2% in the year to October. According to figures released by the labor department in July 2009, 14 million Americans were out of work by the end of July 2009. The number of long-term unemployed rose to 5 million, rising from about 17 percent of the total in 2008 to 37 percent in November 2009. One of the new uncertainties facing the job market is that because the health care reform bill is vague on the role of employers in providing health insurance, the health insurance reform that is brewing and debated in congress has increased financial risks for companies and added to their concerns about hiring.

America's current employment problem is reflected not only in rising unemployment, but also in falling incomes. In this crisis, many of those lucky enough to keep their jobs have seen their incomes fall to varying degrees as a result of wage cuts, reduced benefits and the absence of bonuses. For many who regain jobs, new jobs often pay less than lost ones. In addition, revenue reduction has become a medium - and long-term trend. Many companies have revised their business models during the economic crisis, made structural adjustments to their businesses, and hired new staff. In the auto industry, for example, management has reached new agreements with unions that require new employees to earn less and receive fewer benefits than existing employees. In the long run, as international competition becomes more intense, labor costs for American companies are becoming a prominent issue. All of which bodes well for the challenges facing the U.S. job market in creating medium - and higher-paying jobs.

The upper-income classes have also been hit hard by the crisis. Deep cuts in consumption by high earners have been a key feature of the economic crisis. Until the third quarter of 2009, consumption at this level had not picked up significantly. The key problem is that old, high-paying industries, such as high-tech in the 1990s and finance in the past decade, have declined and new high-paying industries have yet to emerge. Venture capital into industry has remained low in the us in recent years, so there has been no launch of a new high-income industry with economies of scale following the bursting of the tech bubble. While in the crisis has quite a few political academics calling for repeated U.S. industrial policy, the Obama administration is also interested in green energy as the breakthrough to revive American manufacturing, new industry can strengthen America's economic strength, and can build a new high income industry, but now, it seems, whether it can achieve this goal is not clear.

Without a clear income outlook, it is hard to be optimistic about a recovery in consumption. The recovery of consumption power can mean two different things: first, a return to a "normal" economy with sustainable levels of consumption within the limits of disposable income; Second, a return to pre-crisis levels of consumption. The former is easy, the latter is difficult. Logically, if the high consumption in the United States before the crisis was to some extent based on the credit bubble, then the relationship between high consumption and the credit bubble is just like the skin of the bubble: if the skin of the credit bubble does not exist, how can we expect the return of high consumption?

While the U.S. government's bailout plan is an immediate solution, it is neither effective nor lasting. Some studies suggest that only a third of the government's stimulus spending has been spent, with the rest either deposited in the bank or used to pay down debt. Even such an inefficient stimulus would not be a long-term solution, and the resulting huge fiscal deficit would inevitably lead to inflation, reducing Americans' real spending power.

In addition, the demand for economic growth in emerging markets and the increase in local labor prices, coupled with the fiscal deficit policies adopted by many countries during the economic crisis, will push up the prices of international commodities and raw materials, increase the risk of inflation, thus restraining the personal consumption of the United States. The long-term decline of the dollar, although it will help American exports and create jobs in the United States, it will also curb the consumption capacity of Americans by raising the price of international products.

To sum up, Americans' financial resources have been severely damaged in the crisis. The old high-paying industries are no longer in their glory, while the new high-paying industries have not yet emerged. Coupled with the increasingly fierce competition in international industries, Americans' income growth is facing great difficulties and the prospect is very unclear. As a result, the outlook for personal consumption in the us is also grim.

The wealth effect does not fully explain the rise in us consumption over the past decade. It can explain the rising consumption close to the level of disposable income, but cannot explain the large and long period of consumption growth beyond the level of disposable income. To account for the level of consumption above disposable income, we must discuss the constant term "alpha" in the consumption model, i.e. the role of consumption borrowing or consumption leverage in non-income factors.

As mentioned in the previous analysis, since the late 1980s, personal consumption in the United States began to approach the level of disposable income and eventually exceeded the limit of disposable income. That is to say, the consumption lever has played a substantial role in the growth of American consumption in the past 20 years. Its extensive and extensive use is the main reason that the growth rate of American consumption is higher than the growth rate of income, and thus the consumption level is higher than the income level.

The use of consumption leverage is mainly reflected in the issuance and use of credit CARDS. According to statistics, in 1995, credit card consumption accounted for only 8% of American retail consumption transactions, and in 2003, it increased to 21%. America's rolling debt was only about 1% of total consumer debt at the end of the 1960s, rising to nearly a quarter by the end of the 1980s and nearly a third by the end of the 1990s. The flood of consumer credit is closely related to the low interest rate, the real estate bubble and the emergence and flood of credit financial derivatives in the past 20 years. We will not delve into these reasons here.

In this economic crisis, credit leverage was severely hit, the impact is both short - term and long - term; the reasons are both commercial and political.

First, the failure rate of commercial Banks, hit by the real estate and economic crisis, has increased sharply. According to the statistics of the federal deposit insurance corporation of the United States, from 2005 to 2006, there were no bank failures in the United States. In 2007, there were three bank failures, and in 2008, there were 26 bank failures. As of June 2009, 416 more Banks were likely to fail, the highest number in 15 years. In addition, after the residential real estate crisis, commercial real estate in the long - term economic depression under the impact of danger. This makes the American banking industry face new credit and liquidity risks.

Consumer credit is also unsustainable. Although the rate of bad loans on credit CARDS has improved since the second half of 2009, the overall rate of bad loans on credit CARDS is still hovering around 10.5%, far higher than the normal rate of around 3.5%. In such a credit environment, Banks have no choice but to protect themselves, reduce lending and avoid risks. As a result, the growth of consumer credit and the growth of the balance of account roll slowed down from the second quarter of 2008 to negative growth in the first quarter of 2009. Figures for August 2009 suggest negative growth of around 8% for both. With consumers strapped for cash and unable to borrow, consumer confidence has plummeted to a record low of 25 in nearly two decades. Consumer confidence, though improving in the third quarter of 2009, is only around 50.

More seriously, there are signs that the us economy is beginning to undergo a turning point, and that the short-term financial deleveraging measures used to deal with the economic crisis will evolve towards a permanent system in the medium and long term. The so-called New Normal, or New reality, characterized by financial deleveraging and widespread government intervention in markets, has been discussed in the us media, business and public policy circles since the end of 2008.

As a kind of financial leverage, securitization has been an important way for the financing and credit growth of large and medium-sized financial institutions in the United States for several years. But in 2008, the average private-label securitization in the United States has decreased to the level of 2000, and is only about 40 percent of that of 2007. In October 2009, it was lower than in 2008. This trend is both an economic reality and a long-term goal of government regulation. A key element of the administration's proposed financial overhaul is a strict regulatory regime to prevent financial institutions from over-leveraging. To be sure, post-crisis leverage is unlikely to return to the levels of previous years.

The dilution of financial leverage, while helping to reduce systemic risk, will also weaken the ability of Banks to lend. The economic reality of the past decade is that us consumption has been based in part on financial leverage. Once this foundation ceases to exist, high consumption becomes a tree without roots.

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