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Japan's bubble economy

2019-12-20 来源: 51Due教员组 类别: Paper范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的paper代写范文- Japan's bubble economy,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了日本的泡沫经济。日本在1985年美国签订“广场协议”之后,应对“日元升值萧条”不当而掉入“泡沫经济陷阱”。改革严重滞后是日本掉入“泡沫经济陷阱”的重要原因。在泡沫经济破灭之后,历届日本政府一直试图依靠短期宏观政策来刺激经济,而缺乏系统性结构性改革的勇气和智慧,是日本经济陷入长期萧条,至今未能摆脱泡沫经济阴影的主要原因。

Japan fell into a "bubble economy trap" after the 1985 plaza accord in response to the "yen appreciation depression". The serious lag in reform is an important reason why Japan fell into the "bubble economy trap". After the bursting of the bubble economy, all the Japanese government has been trying to rely on short-term macro policies to stimulate the economy, and the lack of courage and wisdom of systemic structural reforms, Japan's economy into a depression for a long time, have been unable to get rid of the bubble economy of the main causes of shadow.

In the 1970 s, Japan's success in dealing with the "Nixon shock" and two oil crisis, and then, with the center of knowledge intensive industry industrial structure gradually formed, at the same time, to a high-speed growth period "investment-led" turned to "export-led economy."

After the 1985 plaza accord, the negative impact of the sharp appreciation of the yen on the Japanese economy was immediately apparent in 1986, mainly due to the blocked exports and declining industrial profits. The GDP growth rate dropped rapidly from 6.33% in 1985 to 2.83%. This period is known as the "yen appreciation shock" or "yen appreciation depression".

To deal with if the export is blocked due to the yen appreciation of the yen appreciation depression ", the Japanese government first adopted the "expansionary fiscal policy", after the bank of Japan and adopted a loose monetary policy ".

In implementing the expansionary fiscal policy, in September 1986, the Japanese government to formulate the overall size is about 3.6 trillion yen "comprehensive economic countermeasures", in May 1987 and made the total size of about 6 trillion yen "emergency economic measures. However, in pursuit of fiscal balance, the Japanese government has reduced fiscal expenditure, so the task of stimulating the economy has to turn to monetary policy.

In loose monetary and financial policy, the bank of Japan implementing expansionary monetary policy since 1985, starting in 1986, five times in a year's time to cut the discount rate, the benchmark interest rate from 5% in 1986 to 2.5% in 1987 its lowest level in history. At the same time, the growth rate of broad money reached 10.8%, 10.2% and 12% respectively from 1987 to 1989, resulting in an initial increase in domestic capital and an "abnormally sufficient" level of liquidity.

Under the support of loose monetary policy, the real economy did not develop rapidly. On the contrary, surplus funds flowed into the stock market and real estate sector, and the bubble economy gradually formed.

Look at the stock market. The nikkei 225 index shot up from 13,054 in early 1986 to a record high of 38,957 on December 28, 1989, three times the 1985 plaza accord price. During this period, in 1987, the total market value of Japanese stocks surpassed that of the United States for the first time to become the largest in the world, and that year, the total market value of Japanese stocks accounted for 41.7 percent of the global market value. In addition, by the end of 1989, the total market value of Japanese corporate shares had reached up to 753.6 trillion yen, 1.8 times the GDP of that year.

In terms of the land market. If of land price at the end of 1980 to 1980, the Tokyo area of commercial land price at the end of 1991 is 407.16, have risen by as much as four times, the national average price also reached 245.68 at the end of 1991, gained as much as twice as many. In addition, according to the cabinet office's economic and social research institute and the National economic statistics of establishment of the calendar year in the Annual Report on National Accounts ", the Japanese land value at the end of 1985 from 1.03267 quadrillion yen soared to 1990 at the end of 2.40672 quadrillion yen, rose by 2.33 times. Some scholars estimate that Japan's land value in 1990 was about four times that of the United States.

In 1989, the government finally realized the huge risks of a bubble economy and decided to start tightening. On the monetary front, the bank of Japan raised the official discount rate five times between May 1989 and August 1990, from 2.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Meanwhile, in 1990, the bank of Japan passed "window guidance" requiring all metropolitan Banks to reduce new loans by 30% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. In terms of fiscal policy, in April 1990, dazang province required that commercial Banks' loans to real estate companies should not grow faster than their total loans. The new land tax system introduced in 1992 increased and strengthened the imposition of land ownership and transfer proceeds. Among them, the newly established land price tax will charge land price tax at 0.3% of the total land value for individuals and legal persons who own land ownership and land borrowing rights on January 1 of each year. Under the dual control of tight monetary policy and fiscal and taxation policies, Japan's "flat bubble economy" was finally punctured.

On the one hand, asset prices have fallen sharply. From the point of the stock market, Japan's nikkei 225 index from 1990 began to fall, despite the government's support, the stock is still down from a peak of 38957 in 1989 to 1994 in 14194, almost back to its bubble economy at the beginning of the 1986 levels. In 1992, the total market value of Japanese corporate shares was 485.71 trillion yen, only about 60% of its peak in 1989, and it has fallen to about 1.1 times GDP. From the point of land value, Japan in 2005 the national land value at about 1.19544 quadrillion yen, only 50% of the peak in 1990, the Tokyo area of commercial land price was only 20.88% in 1990, the same is almost back to its bubble economy at the beginning of the 1986 levels.

On the other hand, asset prices have fallen sharply, many enterprise insolvency and began to appear a lot of failure, increasing by a big margin so as to make the financial institutions to toxic assets, and financial institutions operating situation. Emerge in the face of a large number of financial institutions, however, the bad assets, the Japanese government did not give enough attention, and even believe that the downward economic sentiment is normal economic cycle, the Japanese economy could soon be back in good upward, and gradually resolve the bad assets by economic growth. Instead, the problem of toxic assets in Japanese financial institutions grew and eventually led to the financial crisis. According to statistics, from 1991 to 1996, the collapse of large financial institutions for 15, in 1997 year alone seven financial institutions collapse, including four of the most famous mountains, one of the largest securities company, a securities company, one of the top ten city bank Hokkaido colonize a bank, and sanyo securities company, etc. Between 1998 and 2002, 158 financial institutions failed. The deep impact of the bust is evident. Fourth, the formation of deflation

After the "bubble economy" burst, in addition to an economic stagnation, Japan also fell into severe deflation, known as the "lost decade", "lost twenty years" or even "lost 30 years".

Before 1998, the Japanese people from all walks of life is not about deflation cause enough attention, but in front of the economy, more and more serious until April 2001, the cabinet office in the regular monthly economic report was first admitted that Japan had appeared in two years ago in 1999 prices continued to fall, in the slow deflation situation. From the monthly data, according to data released by the Japan's communications ministry CPI total of 7 times in half a year or more consecutive negative growth, which in September, 1999, September ZE2003 49 consecutive months, in February 2009 to September 2010 for 20 months of negative growth. According to figures released by the bank of Japan, PPI are also more than once a year in a row and negative growth, such as between January 1992 and March 1992, 63 consecutive months, in September 2000 to December 2003 40 consecutive months, in March 1998 to December 1999 for 22 consecutive months of negative growth.

Long-term deflation had a great influence on Japan's economy, prices continue to reduce the compression of corporate earnings and wages, investment, consumption reduction, causing prices to fall further, this vicious cycle that Japan's economy in the state for a long time. First, growth has fallen sharply, with GDP growing by an average of only 1.47 per cent in the 1990s and 0.6 per cent in the first decade of the 21st century, a very low growth rate compared with the average 4.4 per cent in the 1980s. Second, employee wages have fallen, since 1998, the name of the Japanese enterprise total wages compared to the negative, affected by the financial crisis at the same time, the more sharply by 3.6% in 2009, also a 2.6% decline in real wages. Finally, investment in corporate equipment has fallen and many companies have gone bankrupt.

According to Japanese Banks' capital flows and financial assets and financial liabilities of each sector stock and flow meter, and the cabinet office's economic and social research institute and National economic statistics of establishment of the calendar year in the Annual Report on National Accoums ", this paper studies the 1980 ~ 2014 Japanese stock of financial asset liability relationship between various departments, found the following conclusions.

The failure of fiscal stimulus is one of the causes of deflation. Since 1992, Japan has repeatedly introduced expansionary spending and tax cuts around public investment. However, due to the rigid structure of fiscal expenditure, the Japanese government massive fiscal stimulus, not only to Japan's economy out of recession and deflation, on the contrary make the government a sharp deterioration in the balance sheet. Because after entering the 1990 s, Japan's economic situation and obvious changes have taken place in structure, increasingly perfect infrastructure, increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry, the proportion of residents' consumption rising and falling investment proportion. By this time, however, the Japanese fiscal spending still towards productive public investment, and large-scale production infrastructure construction, there have been serious diminishing marginal benefit, fiscal stimulus is therefore difficult to play a role.

Banks' reluctance to lend is the second cause of deflation. Although the bank of Japan has repeatedly cut benchmark interest rates since the bubble burst, it has even pursued a zero interest rate policy. However, monetary policy also does not meet expectations, not only economic growth not rebound, also makes Japan into the "liquidity trap", so the social from all walks of life of the blame for the bank of Japan. The key problem is the failure of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Japan's financial institutions, beset by huge non-performing loans, have changed their behaviour, stopped extending new loans and even voluntarily recovered loans from corporate borrowers. In this sense, the banking sector has not acted as a good financial intermediary. Unless the banking sector deal with its balance sheet in the middle of the problem, to restore its financial health, it won't be able to reconstruct the function of financial intermediaries play a monetary policy transmission mechanism, make monetary policy work. Therefore, the failure of Japanese financial institutions to deal with the problem of bad debts in a short period of time has also become one of the important causes that hinder the further economic development and lead to the price drop.

Corporate "lending sparingly" is the third cause of deflation. Japan nomura research institute chief economist Richard koo, puts forward the concept of "balance-sheet recession", he said, the Japanese economy this recession because of enterprise assets in the bubble period over-expansion, and asset prices collapsed after its bubble burst, at the same time the enterprise assets shrunk dramatically, which caused the imbalance of the balance sheet and the corporate debt seriously out of balance, resulting in the technical situation of bankruptcy. In this process, enterprises will take the minimization of liabilities as the business objective, that is, to minimize liabilities and repair damaged balance sheets by stopping or delaying the borrowing. Ultimately, this massive balance-sheet repair by companies will exacerbate the credit crunch and liquidity stagnation that will eventually lead to a deeper recession. In Japan's case, on the one hand, after the bubble burst, the growth of corporate sector loan debt stalled. , on the other hand, it was not until 1997 that the corporate sector is still rising bond financing scale, and from 1991 to 1997 the average growth rate higher than the bubble economy period, at the same time, the corporate sector equity financing scale but are its scale in 1999, the size of the even higher than in 1989. It can be seen that there is still a huge demand for capital in the enterprise sector. After 1999, monetary policy failed mainly because the financial sector was reluctant to lend.

Capital flight is the fourth cause of deflation. Thanks to ultra-low interest rates and the falling yen, the private sector has started to hold foreign assets on a large scale. Corporate sector of foreign securities investment stock has increased from 24.81 trillion yen in 1999 ~ 49.19 trillion yen in 2006, the average annual growth of 11.1%, and foreign direct investment stock has increased from 18.69 trillion yen in 1999 ~ 32.53 trillion yen in 2006, the average annual growth of 8.98%. Department of foreign assets and residents also presents the trend of rapid expansion, in the five years from 1999 to 2004, the foreign securities investment stock increased by 2.52 trillion yen, the size of the foreign currency and deposits increased by 4 trillion yen, the average annual growth rate of 22.31%. Japan's private sector shrank inward and outward, further reducing overall domestic demand.

It can be seen that after the bursting of the bubble economy, Japan only relies on "ineffective" stimulus policies, and the lack of sustainable structural reforms is the fundamental reason why Japan gradually moves towards deflation. In the wake of deflation, the private sector balance sheet repair further aggravated and prolonged the extent and duration of deflation, which eventually led to a prolonged period of deflation in Japan.

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