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# Assignment代写：Statistical thinking

2018-05-12 来源: 51due教员组 类别: 更多范文 Statistics is a discipline of methodology, which is the study of how to process, process and analyze data. As a methodology discipline, the understanding of its basic ideas is the main means to deepen the statistical understanding and the requirement of better use of statistical methods. In statistics teaching, how to effectively carry out the basic idea of statistics in daily teaching is an important means to improve students' understanding and interest in this subject.

There are many reasons for poor statistics, including two important reasons: first, there are many complicated formulas in learning; Second, the students' understanding of statistical methods has not completely removed the thought patterns and basic ideas of middle school mathematics. The essence is the understanding of statistical thought. Specifically, is to statistical learning just to learn from the formula itself, unable to deeply understand the "why", focusing on the problem of "how to", which makes the students in learning is difficult to really realize the function of statistics to be used.

Statistical thought refers to the basic idea and guiding ideology that must be followed in the study of statistical work and statistical theory. It is based on a basic worldview. The basic concepts of statistics on the world are: quantity view, general view and inference view. This is the starting point of the statistical understanding of the world. It is the guideline of statistical work and theoretical research, as well as the basic thinking mode of statistical work and theoretical research.

Everything is the unity of the quality and quantity, the number of view statistics from the qualitative perspective, the study of the characteristics of general terms of the number of things, to meet the development trend of things and its change rule. This is not only to raise awareness of the quantitative characteristics of things, but also to apply mathematics knowledge to statistics.

The object of statistics is a general, must be a collection of many things. Statistical overall thought that always stand in the object of study of the overall perspective, to the whole of each unit is widespread in the fact that a large number of observation and comprehensive analysis, it is concluded that reflect the characteristics of the overall number of phenomena. The general phenomenon is relatively stable, showing some common tendency, there are rules to follow, and the laws of social phenomena usually have the general nature.

Statistical research mainly based on the regularity of the phenomenon of, from this point of view, law lies in the object is endless, need to observe group is always limited, summed up the regularity, the phenomenon that the overall judgment is based on inference. Inferring ideas tell us that the world of knowledge is infinite, and how to infer certain laws and features of the infinite world by using some known information. There are two kinds of inferences: the whole of what has happened; To infer something that hasn't happened by what happened. But in either case, the object and the conclusion are objective, but people have not yet known and need to know. Some inferences cannot be fully tested on the whole, such as blood test and destructive testing, and the latter, such as urban residents' living standards and price changes. Inference is a probabilistic inference that takes advantage of existing information. The sampling inference is the centralized embodiment of statistical inference.

From the perspective of concrete statistical analysis, the basic thought of statistics includes the idea of mean, the thought of variation, the thought of estimation, the thought of the relevant thought, the thought of fitting and the thought of examination.

The idea of means involves all aspects of statistical theory, which is the basic idea of statistics. The mean concentration shows the basic process and basic viewpoint of statistical cognition. Statistics are the quantitative characteristics of the study population. When describing the overall quantitative characteristics, we tend to focus on the general level of the population, not the individual level or the overall level. The quantitative characteristics of the individual tend to include the influence of the contingency factors, and the overall volume level is often affected by the overall range size, which cannot effectively reflect the general level of the statistical population. Compared with the individual, the general level can be used to eliminate the influence of the contingency factor, showing the overall intrinsic characteristics. This is statistically reflected as the average index, which reflects the central tendency of data by means of means.

No variation, no statistics. Although the goal of the statistics is to find the general level of the population, that is to look for the general rule in the individual, and the process of cognition starts from the variation. The variation reflects the contingency of the change of things, and the basic indicator of variation is the variance.

The overall statistical analysis is based on the sample. In actual work, it is often impossible or difficult to obtain the overall data. Only the data of the samples can be used to deduce the population, and the overall data can be inferred from the sample to achieve a systematic understanding of the whole.

The so-called related idea is to reflect the relationship between things, which is the application of the idea that philosophy is the universal connection in statistics. It reflects the relation between things, and reflects the uncertainty of the connection, and objectively reflects the real relationship between things.

Fitting essence is an abstract reflection of the uncertainty relation between things. This method is the fitting of law or trend, its basic starting point is the elimination of chance, and finally reflects the necessity behind the accident. The result of fitting is the model, reflecting general trend, and the trend expresses "the pattern of the change of things and relations in quantity and the possibility of predication based on this".

The statistical analysis method is based on inductive method, which is a process from the individual to the whole and from the local to the whole. The conclusion is that due to the differences of the selected individuals, it must include contingency, and in establishing the model, due to the influence of contingency, it is necessary to make certain assumptions. The reliability of the results is to be tested. The so-called test is based on the sample data and makes a certain assumption on the whole, and tests the correctness of this hypothesis.

On the one hand, we start from the individual, to find out the general and essential features of things, which is the ultimate goal of our statistical method. On the other hand, the differences between individuals are objective and cannot be eliminated, and the difference must be reflected truthfully. This difference is also an evaluation of the effect of the general level. The mean and the variation comprehensively reflect the basic characteristics of the population in the opposite way, and the mean has the variation, which reflects the basic characteristics of the population from two different angles.

From the perspective of estimation, we can't leave the mean in the estimation process. In the sample estimate overall, can only use the sample average to estimate the overall average, estimated by the overall size of the sample overall total scale, the estimate of the overall population characteristics often embodies as the estimate of the population mean, but without variation to estimate the results of inspection, almost all of the hypothesis test is based on the deviation. Although the hypothesis test on the index of it, or from the target point of view or from the basic starting point of view, all showed great difference, but in its essence, is established on the basis of evaluation of the size of deviation.

There are two main points in the statistics: one is that the variables are related; The second is the uncertainty of the link. The correlation between variables is reflected by means of means, and the uncertainty of the relation is reflected by variation.

In the reflection of the relationship between the fitting and the uncertainty of things, the first is the general relation that reflects things, namely, the relationship between the influence of the contingency factor is eliminated. In the process of fitting model, different methods have different models, but in the same way, the method of eliminating the contingency factor in the fitting process of various models is based on the idea of mean.

The related thought is the basis of fitting thought, the thought of estimation is the premise of the test idea, and there are four interdependent relations. In practice, it is necessary to reflect and describe the relevant relationship, and to understand the essential law of the development of things. The method of understanding correlation is fitting model; When fitting the model, it is often used to estimate the overall model by using the sample data. Because of the contingency in the sample, we must test the sample model.

The knowledge of statistical thinking is the important basis for grasping and applying statistical methods, and it is also an important prerequisite for improving statistical application.

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