Us_Mexico_Violence

Running Head: United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence Mexico Violence: Growing Threat to the United States (War on Drugs) INSS 5302 – Professional Seminar in Intelligence and National Security University of Texas at El Paso July 15, 2011 United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence Key Judgments * United States assistance to Mexico in funding, intelligence sharing, and equipment has a positive impact in Mexico’s war on drugs. This has also helped in deterring violence from Mexico into the United States. * President Calderon’s war against the drug cartels and gangs within its boundaries will most likely continue to spark violence in Mexico. The “War on Drugs” is too lucrative for any criminal organization to let go. * As Mexico makes great strides and detains, arrest, and kill top drug lords and gang members, violence will continue as lower level criminals fight within each organization for control over the multi-billion dollar business that drugs generate in Mexico and United States. * Although spillover of the violence in Mexico has not affected the United States, leaks of the violence is happening in the United States, unless Mexico gets a tighter control over these criminal organizations the threat of spillover is becoming more and more possible. * Re-evaluation of the Merida Initiative and its potential to assist Mexico in their efforts must be conducted annually with clear goals and deadlines to achieve. * A program of quarterly reports from Mexican officials on United States funding usage to United States Congress to determine continued assistance and amount of funding must be put in place and monitored extensively. * Funding for United States border cities/towns must be included in the Merida Initiative with the same oversight and reporting instructions. This cities/towns are United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence in the frontline and a secondary line of defense and unintended participant to President’s Calderon’s and the United States war on drugs. * United States and Mexico must learn from the past. Initial results and consequences of Mexico’s efforts from 2006 are common to what Colombia battled in the mid-80s through the late 90s. Mexico’s pride must be put aside and allow United States intervention in the form of human resource in its country. What took Colombia 20 plus years to accomplish can take Mexico half that time. * Law enforcement from both federal and state must focus on criminal activity and less on immigration status. A risk of alienating Mexico with laws such as SB 1070 can create a negative affect and potential of less cooperation from the Mexican government and a risk to United States citizens abroad. * The Merida Initiative is becoming more and more like Plan Colombia. A shift in funding from Colombia to Mexico is becoming evident and unavoidable. Introduction There is no question that Mexico and the United States share a unique relationship. Whether it is violence, economic, political, or social changes. Both countries feel an affect because of the closeness of its borders. The potential for the violence currently plaguing Mexico is likely to be a continuous threat to the United States. With a 2000- mile border that is divided by barbed wire or a river 20-30 yards wide, it shares in a lot of positive and negative issues of which are both interrelated in each country. The demand for drugs in the United States fuels the violence and competition within cartel organizations over control of territory and drug routes in Mexico. The need for weapons United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence in Mexico to keep government officials, law enforcement, and the general public in fear so that the cartels and criminals can conduct their criminal business without repercussions and/or consequences fuels the illegal arms purchase and trafficking in the United States. Both sides depend on each other for economic needs, Mexico for its ability to import and United States for its ability to export over the border. A good working relationship is needed to ensure that violence in Mexico is being fought at both sides with the same goals in mind. The issue currently affecting both sides is the responsibility each should be taking and the pride of the Mexican government in which it does not want American human capital in their country assisting in the war on drugs declared by President Calderon. It is very likely that the continued violence will give the Mexican and United States Government no choice but to take a look at what Colombia did in the early 80s and late 90s to combat the violence they faced in the hands of powerful cartels. Mexico’s war on drugs is in its infancy stage compared to the hardships Colombia faced over two decades. The ability to look at Colombia’s successes will be key in assisting Mexico in its war on drugs and most likely minimize the length in time where Mexico can see a positive affect in its efforts against the cartels and criminal organizations. Mexico – Violence Since the declaration of war against the drug cartels by Mexican President Calderon, “more than 35,000 people have died since President Felipe Calderon stepped up the attack on organized crime in 2006, according to official figures. Some groups put the number at more than 40,000” (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/07/09/501364/main20078178.shtml). Many United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence innocent victims caught in the middle of turf wars with the cartels and criminal organizations trying to get access to drug routes in Mexico and the United States. With many illegal immigrants from all over South America and other countries falling victims to organizations such as the Zetas, Gulf Cartels, and Sinaloa Cartels, they are easy prey for these organizations that try to recruit and many times force the immigrants to carry drugs over to the United States. Many do in fear of their life, those that do not, end up dead in a ditch or mass graves. It is with high confidence that this technique used by cartels will grow in use, since it provides for others to be caught and safety for the criminal organizations. As President Calderon’s crackdown on the cartels intensifies and top cartel members are caught, the violence continues to escalate as these organizations try to take over control of the drug trade where there is a void after top members are incarcerated. It is unlikely that the violence associated with these organizations will ever be controlled to low levels, it is too much of a lucrative business for it to be left alone. The gains in the business for many outweigh the risk of death or capture. Expenditure in illegal drugs is very high as demonstrated in the chart from 1998 below. “Globalization hit organized crime over the last decade and now is integral to its most profitable business -- the international narcotics traffic. Once a regional problem involving a customer base of a few million, and barely a billion dollars in sales, the illegal drug industry is now a worldwide enterprise with tens of millions of hard-core consumers spending hundreds of billions on opiates, cocaine and amphetamines and marijuana, as well as other drugs” (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/special/math.html). United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence | | | Cartels and criminal gangs in Mexico use fear to obtain the power and money to continue their enterprise. With billions of dollars moving to Mexico from the United States, it gives these individuals the funding and power to corrupt an already corrupt system in the Mexican government. Although improvements have been done by President Calderon’s crackdown, it is unlikely that corruption to a significant extent will happen any time soon. A complete overhaul of their law enforcement and political system must be done to effectively combat this issue. With the very officials sworn to protect the Mexican public, corruption and violence is a way of life that, Mexican citizens cannot depend on or are afraid of the police, Army, and federal agents. Many of which are involved in the violence and paid by cartels and United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence criminal gangs for information and protection. Unless, the Mexican government can pay better wages and benefits to these individuals, it is with high confidence that corruption will linger in the ranks of these agencies. The inability of the Mexican government to protect its own agents and pay them reasonable wages and benefits for family will be a cause of concern for continued corruption. Actions from officials will most likely continue in forms of, “City cops killing their own mayors; state jailers helping inmates escape; federal agents mutinying against corrupt commanders; outgunned officers cut down in ambushes or assassinated because they work for gangster rivals” (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/7251246.html). A complete overhaul of the police and army training must be done to focus and address human rights and civil liberties. Public trust must be regained and maintained in order for police and law enforcement agencies can get the much-needed support from its citizens. Merida Initiative The Merida initiative is assistance provided by the United States to show their commitment in the war on drugs. “The multi-year Merida Initiative will provide equipment and training to support law enforcement operations and technical assistance for long-term reform and oversight of security agencies. The initiative complements broader efforts by Mexico, the Central American nations, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic to fight criminal organizations and drug trafficking” (http://www.state.gov/p/inl/merida/). This initiative has helped the Mexican government with much needed funding and equipment to combat cartels and criminal organizations. It is with high confidence that funding and equipment alone will not help the Mexican United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence government meet its goal. The likelihood of corruption is much higher without proper and constant oversight of funding usage and equipment maintenance and proper use. Better check and balances must be put in place with Mexican officials delineating clear and achievable goals with a timeline. A Congressional oversight committee in funding usage and reporting requirements to it must be put in place for constant monitoring and deter potential for abuse in funding usage by the Mexican government. It is unlikely the Government now will allow such restrictions and American personnel from overseeing their expenditure and usage, because of pride of wanting to do business on their own without United States interference in their sovereign country. History, has shown this will not work and will change as the violence in Mexico gets worse. The training, equipment, technology, and intelligence tactics the United States holds is much higher and more advanced than the Mexican government can deploy at this time. Their view towards no United States involvement will likely change as elections come closer in order for significant results to happen and assist President Calderon in not losing face among his Mexican citizens. The Merida initiative is closely similar to what Plan Colombia was in order to assist the Colombian Government in its war with cartels, left wing guerillas and criminal organizations. Plan Colombia consisted of five basic components, “1. Improving Governing Capacity and Respect for Human Rights; 2. Expansion of Counter-Narcotics Operations Into Southern Colombia; 3. Alternative Economic Development; 4. Increased Interdiction in Colombia and the Region; and 5. Assistance for the Colombian National Police” United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence (http://www.state.gov/www/regions/wha/colombia/fs_000328_plancolombia.html). Like the Merida Initiative, Plan Colombia and Colombian government did not want human capital (resources) in their country. After 20 years of fighting the war against their Colombian enemies, Colombia requested military assistance and now has the biggest United States Military Group working in the United States Embassy to assist them in the war on drugs. Massive improvements have been accomplished since then with the rescue of five United States contractors captured and the five-year effort to rescue them and the recent killings of top guerilla leaders. All this accomplished by United States direct assistance to Colombian law enforcement and army. It is likely and with high confidence that the Mexican Government will pursue the same actions Colombia has. The issue is that they must act quicker, analyze the successes and programs of Colombia and implement them in a much faster and concise way then Colombia did in order to lessen the timeframe it took Colombia to be successful. Mexico must set its pride aside and allow human capital in the form of active involvement in Mexican soil by United States law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and military personnel. Only then will Mexico see a positive shift in its war on drugs. Mexico is currently to corrupt within its agencies and politics to effectively do it on their own. If they chose not to allow United States involvement to the extent currently that of in Colombia, they will likely see their war fail or last as long as Colombia’s did, over two decades. United States – Mexico Violence “Leaks” United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence Although violence to the extent Mexico is experiencing is less likely to happen in the United States. “Leaks” to violence associated with Mexican cartels and criminal gangs have happened in the United States and is a concern for potential spillover and increased threat to United States citizens and its infrastructure. The problem is the definition the United States government includes as spillover violence. “The federal government says spillover must be drug-related violence that targets innocent civilians or law enforcement on U.S. soil” (http://www.npr.org/2011/07/06/137445310/spillover-violence-from-mexico-a-trickle-or-flood). This vague interpretation sends out a misleading interpretation of the violence that is interrelated with Mexican violence in the United States. While a kidnapping and/or missing person report is done in the United States and later found as part of a mass grave in Mexico. That murder or death is not considered in the death rates of the United States city that reported the initial kidnapping or missing persons. This manipulation of statistics sends a conflicting signal to law enforcement on both sides of the border and to United States citizens who think they are safe from the “spillover” violence. If a United States citizen innocent or not is found murdered in foreign soil, it is not considered into United States statistics and not included in the “spillover” stats for consideration. Yet, bullet fragments from gun battles from The Mexican side have been found in El Paso, TX, both at the University of Texas at El Paso and El Paso City Hall. If this is not considered “spillover” then what is. It is likely that the United States government is United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence waiting for a tragic event such as violence seen in Mexico (Ciudad Juarez) before they realize the importance in redefining and taking the small “leaks” of violence currently happening seriously. This “leaks” will become flows as the Mexican government continues to crackdown on cartels and the criminal organizations become more desperate in there pursuit to secure territory and routes from Mexico to the United States. It is more likely that the “spillover” will be more significant when Mexico begins to allow United States agencies to operate in Mexico. The United States must prepare for the desperate reaction of the cartels and criminal organizations on both sides of the border. Conclusion Mexico has a long road ahead of them in order to “win” this war on drugs. Although it is likely that winning is not an option, the minimizing of the violent acts from the cartels is priority for Mexico. It has seen more deaths than any current war to include the war on terror. The desperate attempts by the cartels to take control and fight each other has put Mexican citizens in fear of their life. The corruption Mexico currently is plagued with is a constant issue President Calderon attempts to rectify but is likely to fail without assistance from the United States. President Calderon’s plan to nationalize his police force is a plan and program used effectively by the Colombian government. The use of the Merida Initiative by the Mexican Government to effectively pursue this plan must be re-evaluated and ensure complete oversight from United States officials. It is unlikely they will succeed if they do not allow such oversight and checks and balance. Corruption is too extreme currently United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence in the Mexican government. An effective panel to analyze Colombia’s programs and plans and compare to Mexico issue is needed to ensure the length of time it took Colombia to see positive results is shortened in Mexico. The United States has a bigger investment in ensuring this because of the proximity of Mexico to its border. Although funding , equipment, and intelligence sharing has helped Mexico, the use of human capital and operation conducted, supervised, and trained by United States agencies is a necessary concept that Mexico must embrace if they want to see better and increased significant results. It is likely as the death toll becomes severe, which with current numbers is severe in itself, Mexico will have no choice but to realize they need the expertise and experience of the United States justice agencies and its advanced technology. A spillover of violence from Mexico is yet to happen based on the vague definition by the federal government, but it will most likely become an issue as the noose gets tighter on criminal organizations and Mexico and United States work together to minimize the cartels and criminal organizations ability to obtain weapons, traffic drugs, and instill fear within the Mexican government and its citizens. United States – Mexico Border Spillover Violence References CBS News-World. (July, 2011). “In Mexico's drug war, 40 new corpses in 24 hours.” Retrieved on July 10, 2011 from http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/07/09/501364/main20078178.shtml Zill, Oriana & Bergman, Lowell. (n.d). Public Broadcasting System, “Do the Math: Why the Illegal Drug Business is Thriving.” Retrieved on 20 July, 2011 from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/special/math.html Althaus, Dudley. (October, 2010). “Mexico’s plague of police corruption: Despite millions in U.S. aid, forces continue to be outgunned, overwhelmed – and often purchased outright – by gangsters.” Chron World, Houston chronicle. Retrieved on July 20, 2011 from http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/7251246.html United States Department of State. (n.d.). “Merida Initiative.” Diplomacy in Action. Retrieved on July 20, 2011 from http://www.state.gov/p/inl/merida/ United States Department of State. (n.d.). “United States Support for Colombia-Plan Colombia.” Retrieved on July 20, 2011 from http://www.state.gov/www/regions/wha/colombia/fs_000328_plancolombia.html Burnett, John. (July, 2011). “Spillover Violence from Mexico: Trickle or Flood'” National Public Radio. Retrieved on July 20, 2011 from http://www.npr.org/2011/07/06/137445310/spillover-violence-from-mexico-a-trickle- or-flood