Singapore

What is ASEAN' * Many of the countries of Southeast Asia who had newly achieved their independence in the post- World War Two era were still in the embryonic stage of development. These countries feared that the whole of Southeast Asia would be swallowed up by communism as a result of the domino effect. This is why ASEAN was formed in 1967, consisting of five non-communist countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines) as a sort of a bulwark against communism. * Its formation was to a large extent a response to a number of grave threats which were seriously threatening the security and peace of the region at that time. * It then came up with an ambitious idea to safeguard the security of the region — neutralization. Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) pronounce the principles of non-interference and the peaceful settlement of disputes. * Economic integration was given a boost in 1992 with the creation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), and security took a centre stage with the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1994. * One initiative taken was to expand the membership to include all the 10 states of Southeast Asia irrespective of their political ideologies. Its biggest success was the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in China. But it is also facing formidable difficulties and challenges. 1. The new Cabinet is discussing Singapore’s policy towards ASEAN. Would you, the senior diplomat they turn to for advice, recommend a policy emphasizing ASEAN integration and unity or Singapore’s freedom of action' Think in terms of economic and security issues. * Our fundamental choice of recommendation will be on the “Policy emphasizing ASEAN integration and unity”. * But the recommendation is situational as the economic and security issues of Singapore don’t share the same ground on achieving the integrated and united ASEAN. Therefore we will discuss our proposal based on 2 aspects: (1) national security and (2) economic issues. (1) National securtiy * After 1990s, China’s rise in economic and military power around Asia Pacific region has significant implications for Southeast Asia’s strategic and economic future. * The implications of China’s military build-up are a key concern towards ASEAN. * China’s support for communist insurgencies in the region was a key factor in creating negative impressions at ASEAN side which results in Cold War. * A number of intra-regional conflicts, such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea, have challenged regional order. * There has been a marked increase in cooperation in the Asia Pacific region which is a good deal of it geared to engaging a rising China. * In this ASEAN members have played an instrumental role. * China as well requires Southeast Asia’s acquiescence and cooperation to realise its leadership ambitions in Asia and the world. * The territorial dispute in the South China Sea provided tensions and anxiety in South Asia about the danger of Chinese possibly expansionism. Therefore power rise in China has far posed a threat to the Southeast Asia region. However, ASEAN members will be able to extract strategic restraint from china and develop cooperative security strategies if the members can stay united and purposeful. * On the other hand, the threat of Islamic terrorism is not only “most dangerous” but worse than the communist threat that Singapore, the Malayan Peninsula faced in the immediate post-war period. * Singapore defines the terrorism problem much the same way the US does: “War on terrorism should not be seen as a war on Islam, and that Islam is an inherently peaceful faith”. * Southeast Asia is the recruiting pool for JI and other Jihadi groups which promote the idea of an Islamic state and “holy war” against unbelievers. * Singapore government sees US as critical in confronting terrorism in SEA. On the other hand, Singapore remains concerned that the U.S. reputation in Muslim communities in Southeast Asia and beyond has declined. * During 2004, Dr. Tan proposed that Singapore, Malaysia, and the United States jointly patrol waters of the Malacca Straits however The Malaysian government reject the idea as it would give terrorist groups more targets. * Singapore has taken care not to alarm the surrounding countries of Indonesia and Malaysia, despite on-going Singapore-U.S. cooperation to confront the terrorism problem. * The U.S.-Singapore relationship is a very close partnership in many terms yet Singapore will not seek a formal military alliance arrangement with the United States for the consideration of its immediate neighbourhood such as Malaysia and Indonesia. * Therefore to confront terrorism in Southeast Asia and guard the threat of rising China, it requires the integration and unity of ASEAN which includes Islamic countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia to fight the war on terrorism, not the war on Islam and protect against China. (2) Economic issues * Unlike national security, economic issues has a different stand on integration and unity of ASEAN. Valid concerns have been expressed that Southeast Asia has lost the dynamism and drive towards trade and investment liberalisation and integration. * And it is seen by extra regional foreign investors as the “less attractive cousin” of Northeast Asia. * China’s relationship with ASEAN countries was just a mix of competitions and collaboration. China’s economic development may offer the big opportunity for Southeast Asia region. * In order not to forfeit the possible benefits from China, South East Asia will accommodate China unless until china overly expansionists. * Ten years ago, 80% of total investment in East Asia headed to ASEAN countries and 20% to China but the ratios has been reserved now leaving once-glittering neighbours – Thailand, South Korea Singapore- with crumbs. * Therefore leaders of ASEAN countries have described China’s economic transformation as the biggest challenge. * China’s cheap labour costs and large market lures foreign investments away from Southeast Asia. * Moreover, due to Asia financial crisis, APEC has become rather unwieldy and appears ill-equipped to handle substantive trade and investment liberalisation issues effectively. * Due to these circumstances, Singapore underscored the need to explore alternative liberalisation paths, i.e. a third track. Sourcing of trade pacts on a bilateral basis has become an integral part of Singapore’s new commercial trade strategy. * Singapore’s choice of partners as part of its trade strategy of bilateralism may be broadly divided into two groups. The first group, which includes the US and Japan, are major established trading partners, constituting some one third of the city state’s total merchandise trade. These economic giants are also major investors in the city state as they are in Southeast Asia at large. * Entering into broad-ranging trade agreements with them is not only a means by which Singapore might gain greater market access (with Japan in particular) but is also a way of avoiding the possible imposition of protectionist measures in the future (with regard to the US in particular), as well as managing future trade tensions. * The Singapore-Japan trade accord has been viewed as a precursor to the formation of an East Asia wide FTA between economies in Southeast Asia plus Japan, Korea and China. Singapore needs to remain on the radar screen of world investors even if Southeast Asia as a whole may not be. * Singapore could act as the “flag-bearer” for the region in that its trade initiatives could help maintain global interest and draw extra-regional investments into Singapore and the Southeast Asian region. * The presence of linkages with ASEAN might imply that Singapore-based trade agreements may be an altogether inappropriate model for future trade arrangements with foreign investors. * Therefore Singapore should have its freedom of action in economic agreements with non-ASEAN countries to serve as the medium in drawing extra-regional investments to achieve economically powerful united ASEAN.