Robert_Kaplan_Essay

Kaplan’s expectations for the future of humanity are decidedly bleak. However, his assertion that the destabilizing forces currently at work in West Africa will play out in the West, and by extension, the United States ignore the abundant natural resources, strong political institutions, and individualism inherent in the country. Kaplan’s reasons for global destabilization hinges on scarcity of resources. This, however, just is not the case in the United States. One area where this misconception is clear is natural gas. The forecast for natural gas in the United States has shifted dramatically in the last few years. A few years ago, most forecasts showed the United States growing increasingly dependent on imports of liquefied natural gas. Now, it seems likely that North America will become increasingly independent in natural gas (Brown 2010). There are many factors accounting for this increase. Among them are technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing and a twofold increase in the estimate of U.S. shale gas resources from 2007 to 2009 (Brown 2010). The other area where Kaplan’s prediction about resource scarcity falls apart is regarding renewable water supplies. According to a 2006 study, the United States holds more than twice the amount of renewable fresh water than all West African countries combined (Pacific Institute 2011). The abundant natural resources ensure the strength and stability of the United States. Americans effect change to the country through leveraging the political process. Federal elections occur every two years. State and local elections occur every year. This provides ample opportunity for citizens who are not satisfied with their elected leaders to replace those leaders. Further, when an incumbent loses an election, there is a peaceful transition of power. This is in stark contrast to what usually happens in West Africa. Indeed, following the 2010 Presidential Election in Ivory Coast, the country had with two presidents as both the incumbent and the challenger claimed victory. The ensuing violence led to a resumption of civil war that now continues to plague the country (Mark 2010). Kaplan takes the ethnic diversity in Ivory Coast and templates that over the United States. While racial tensions may still exist in America, they do not present themselves in a remotely similar manner as in Ivory Coast. One need only look at the recent inauguration of the 44th President, Barack Obama for evidence. The division in this country is along philosophical lines and not racial lines as Kaplan suggests. Residents of the United States tend to assert their individualism when deciding what is in their best interest, rather than follow the direction of larger sub-groups. The term “sub-group” includes, but is not limited to, religious, ethnic, or geographical identifiers. From 1973 to 1979, Dutch researcher Geert Hofstede developed his cultural dimension theory. This theory describes the effects of a society's culture on the values of its members, and how these values relate to behavior. He published his original findings in 1980 and has since updated them. According to his theoretical framework, the United States scores more than four times as high on the measure of Individualism. This means the U.S. is a loosely-knit society in which the expectation is people look after themselves and their immediate families. There is also a high degree of geographical mobility in the United States, and most Americans do business with, or interact, with strangers (Hofstede 2001). This is in stark contrast to the score obtained by the West African countries of Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone. West Africa is collectivist society. This is manifest in a close, long-term commitment to the member group, be that a family, extended family, or extended relationships. Loyalty in a collectivist culture is paramount, and over-rides most other societal rules and regulations (Hofstede 2001). The importance of this comes out when Kaplan argues that West Africans will favor tribal affiliations for their basic needs in the wake of crime, scarcity, and overpopulation. Kaplan then attempts to apply this template to the U.S. and claim residents of the State of Montana and the Province of Alberta could realize they have more in common with each other than with Washington, D.C. and Ottawa, respectively (Kaplan 1994). Kaplan did not support this assertion with a cultural analysis. West Africans and Americans are on opposing sides regarding individualism. Residents of Montana believe they are Americans, and not Montanans. The United States of America has faced difficult times in its history but emerged stronger in spite of them. This fact is in direct opposition to the histories of the West African countries. Globalization has brought countries closer, but it has not made them similar. The ethnic diversity in West Africa tends to have a destabilizing influence on those countries. America embraces and celebrates this same diversity. America has had strong political institutions since 1776, and there is no reason to believe that will change any time soon. Its abundant natural resources will allow America to sustain itself for at least the next hundred years. These are just three areas where the United States differs significantly from West Africa, and are areas Kaplan fails to analyze with his dire predictions for America. Brown, Stephen P.A. "Abundant Natural Gas Could Bring Big Changes to U.S. Energy Markets and Policy." Resources for the Future. March 26, 2010. http://www.rff.org/publications/wpc/pages/abundant-natural-gas-could-bring-big-changes.aspx (accessed January 27, 2013). Hofstede, Geert. Culture's Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations Across Nations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2001. Kaplan, Robert D. "The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet." The Atlantic, 1994. Mark, Monica. Time. December 10, 2010. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2035342,00.html (accessed January 27, 2013). Pacific Institute. The World's Water, Vol. 7. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2011.