Decision_of_Uncertainty

Decision of Uncertainty Paper Cell phone technology has embraced the modern day source of communication. Apple has introduced the new I phone 4 in June of 2010, which is an upgrade of the I phone 3GS which came into the market a few months before. I personally have the I phone 3G which is the first I phone from At&t, and am contemplating whether to invest in the newest I phone 4 or just upgrade to the I phone 3gs. The prices are in the same category as the first Apple I phone which is an 8g for $199 and the 16g for $299. The I phone 4 has the 16g for $199 and the 32g for $299. I am currently eligible for an upgrade and I am carefully considering if I should purchase the ever-so-popular I phone 4. Throughout my research, I have learned that the majority of the individuals that have invested in the I phone 4 are mildly impressed with its features and performance. The feedback that I have received and also taking in consideration of the negative personal reviews has altered my decision to invest in this new phone. This is my decision of uncertainty. Apple calls the I phone 4 the biggest leap since the first I phone. There are a few new features and operations that the I phone 4 have to offer to the modern day consumer. One of the most intriguing features is the FaceTime option which is described as video calling. This feature allows you to converse with other I phone 4 users in a real life video conference through a Wi-Fi connection. The main disadvantage to this feature is that both users have to have the I phone 4 to converse this way; if not then this task cannot be complete. The screen quality has also improved because of the LED backlit Retina display which brings the clearest picture to any Smartphone. It contains 326 pixels per inch (more than 4 times the 3gs) which delivers a crisp and vibrant picture without the fuzziness of individual pixels. Also, the new rebranded operating system (iOS4) allows you to multitask, organize applications into folders, get all of your emails in one inbox, and read books with iBooks. The aforementioned features are enticing enough for me to become interested in purchasing the I phone 4. Along with the persuasive facts about purchasing this phone there are disadvantages and negative reasons on why the I phone 4 would not be such a great idea. Any Smartphone that hits the market will have its advantages and disadvantages with the performance and features within the ever-changing technology. One of the main issues with the I phone 4 is poor reception quality. According to EWeek.com, individuals have noticed a repetitive “static” noise while holding a conversation on the I phone 4 due to the antenna. Others have noticed that Face Time can only be used where WIFI is available. Customers aren’t happy with this concept. Apple has a reputation of distracting their customers from the issues with the I phone 4 by updating the Application store, releasing new IPods, and unveiling the Apple TV refresh. These issues have driven me to careful consideration and logic reasoning about if I should purchase the I phone 4 or not. To interpret my data, I have chosen to use the subjective probability model for my decision in buying the I phone 4. Subjective probability describes a person’s personal judgment on how likely a particular event will occur. It is not based on a specific computation but on a reasonable assessment. I believe using the subjective probability theory is best used for the confidence levels of my decision to purchase the new phone or whether not to base on my personal judgment and research. According to Technologizer.com, 43% of respondents has said they have not had any significant problems with their new I phones. Within this percent, they have encountered glitches, but no major problems with these three specified areas: voice reception, data reception, and the proximity sensor. Below is a graph that I pulled from www.technologizer.com generalizing the widely-reported problems. One of the main problems is the issue with the proximity sensor, which I personally have the same problem with now with my I phone 3g. The proximity sensor is used to detect when the I phone 4 is engaged in a call when held close to your face. The updated software will disable the touch screen display while on a call so that your face will not accidentally touch the screen to end the call or press buttons in the receiver’s ear. I’ve experienced this problem and it has become very irritating. If this issue isn’t fixed for the I phone 4, then there is really no point in upgrading to a device that contains the same exact problem that I am experiencing at the moment. In conclusion, the aforementioned problems persist with my decision of uncertainty about purchasing the I phone 4. A person’s subjective probability describes his/her degree of belief in a particular situation. In my personal experiences, applied research, and from other’s reviews, I have decided to NOT purchase the I phone 4 because there seems to be no improved satisfaction with the upgraded software and features can only be used based on WIFI, which is unfortunate. The so-called “Newest and Latest big thing on the market” is not always the best. Most newly remodeled and refurbished items still have glitches and can still use major improvement. In July of 2011, Apple will introduce the I phone 5. Studies show that this is to be a better and improved version of the I phone 4, but will it defeat the original I phone and live up to its expectations' Only time will tell.