Decision_of_Uncertainty_Paper_for_Qnt_561_Week_3

Decision of Uncertainty Paper Risell Tachin Week Three QNT 561 May 12, 2013 Esmaail M. Nikejh Decision of Uncertainty Paper Uncertainty are unforeseen issues that people do not know how to handle, until everything has reached to the bottom of things. In August 2006, there was a memorable date that everyone in the population of El Paso, Texas will not be able to ever forget. That specific year was a total disaster that the rain brought to its citizen in Texas, in which was double the annual average rain and had a damage of over three hundred homes and causing a one hundred million in total damages to the state. Texas experienced days and days of rain creating a major flooding due to the sub-standards water and drain systems and outdated systems. This major problem pushed Texans to analyze the forecasting of the fore-coming flooding with an estimate the cost of expenses in flooding insurance. Per the study done by the National Weather Service Forecast Office Deep convention, that produced unneeded rainfall that caused major flooding, creating threat for many Texans, along with their homes and other properties, that cover part of the southwestern, south, central, and New Mexico, and as far as part of western Texas, most of all during the summer time season. Predicting this unforeseen issues/disasters are very difficult in any region, since mother nature does not provide any warnings, but been prepared and having a risk management system in place will be very helpful due to irregular rain, the sparse data and the relatively poor performance of numerical models in the prediction of heavy rain across the southwestern United States (Rogash, 2003). For this reason it cannot be assumed of predict that the 2006 flood in Texas had a relative combination of independent variable data, and topography existing flooding systems, as independent variables like the normal weather patterns and its rainfall forecasting. Per city representative Eddie Holguin called it a 500-year abnormality and assumed “we still have 490 more years to deal with this issue ” (El Paso times, 2008). On the second hand the National Weather Service, states that it assessed the probability for this to happen again will be in one hundred years. Depending on the fact that the probability been assumed of five hundred year flooding may not affect the current population. To explore another forecasting or probability to for another terrifying flood from occurring within the next one hundred years and it will be best for everyone to purchase a flooding insurance to be able to survive in these type of situations, or even purchase an additional with a higher coverage for flood and hazard insurance. The method chosen here is the The Baye’s theorem to be able to explore the differentiations of the conditional probability, and the possibility of another major flooding in the future of one hundred years occurring in El Paso Texas area, and the anticipation of the sewage system not been able to work or handle a large amount of flooding, this is a little to think about but the best bet will be to purchase an additional flooding and hazard insurance to cover any un-foreseen damages. This method allows an individual to analyze the probability of one even to another, even if it is detailed by the frequency of the certain even based on specific observations. According the research data the probability for a 100 year flood of happening again within any given time or year is 1/100=0.01, and if the opposite happens it will be graded at 99.F1=other flood=01.F=no flood=.99 in the future P (F1) =.01, and P (F2) =.99, that most likely will only apply to another major flooding happens like in 2006 year. In addition the data provided by the City Council states also the 80% of the city’s sewage system is not design to support the rains of this magnitude – M. That leaves 20%probability the existing run off system will be sufficient to handle monsoon rain (Engineeringand Construction Management, 2011). So, this specific data can also be written as P (M/F1)= .80 percent will be the likely hood for the flooding to happen again due to flash flood and P(M/F2) =.23 , where the flooding will not happen again. Per the Bayes theorem: P (F1) P (M|F1)P (F1|M) = _____ P (F1) P (M|F1) + P (F2) P (M|F2)  And :(0.01) (0.80)P (F1|M) = _________________________ = 0.08 = 0.3394(0.01) (0.80) + (0.99) (0.23) 0.2357. So, per the research performed there is a probability if .0394 chances of this incident to happen again in this area with not enough up-to-date sewage or flooding systems. Currently the obtained sewage system in that specific area inclined the possibility of flooding of .01 to .2357. Past probability P (F1) and the conditional Probability most like is to be Probability P (M|F1) Similar Probability could be from P (F1 and M), as before the past Probability would have been P (F1|B) Flooding 0.01 0.80 0.008 0.008/0.2357 =.0.033as not Flooding at all at 0.99 0.23 0.2277 0.2277/0.2357 =0.967P (B) = 0.2357 = 1.00. Based on this research there is a chance of .3 percent for the future flooding damages to happen and the new sewage flooding systems against the .96 probability as they may not be likely to happen. Per Farmers Insurance Company in Texas, the insurance quotes are about to be in the price of $200, 000 and up to $80,000, and with an equivalent to $296 per month (Texas Flood Insurance, 2011). By having additional coverage each homeowner will be better off getting the government’s help in the presidents announces the county a federal disaster state. So, by looking and analyzing all the data, the likely hood of this happening again, it will not be until so many decades, so it will be better just to purchase a regular flooding and hazard insurance versus the extra cost to purchase the insurance per year cost.   DECISION OF UNCERTAINTY PAPER 5ReferenceEngineering and Construction Management. (2011).  El Paso City FloodplainServices . Retrieved from http://www.elpasotexas.gov/engineering/floodzones.asp#CityFloodplain Services Rogash, J. (2003).  Meteorological Aspects of South-Central and Southwestern New Mexico and Far Western Texas Flash Floods . Retrieved fromhttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/epz/research/flashflood.pdf  Texas Flood Insurance. (2011). Retrieved from https://www.texas-flood-insurance.com/thanks.html