Decision_Making

Decision: To take the 2009 H1N1 flu shot or not This past year we have been on alert for a new influenza virus the 2009 H1N1. It was first detected in April 2009 in United States; this virus has been spreading worldwide and has been labeled as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The H1N1 is contagious and spreads from person to person through coughing or sneezing. It can also spread by touching something contaminated with the virus. Most cases of illness associated with the H1N1 virus have been mild in nature, but there have been instances of hospitalization and deaths due to the virus. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). When the vaccine to protect against H1N1 first became available, supplies were limited. So because of its limited quantity the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that people at higher risk for complications, or those caring for high risk individuals who cannot receive vaccination, receive the vaccine first. These priority groups included pregnant women, people who care for children younger than 6 months of age, health care and emergency medical services personnel, anyone 6 months through 24 years of age, and people ages of 25 through 64 years of age at higher risk for H1N1 influenza because of certain chronic health conditions or compromised immune systems. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). I have been very fortunate to never have experienced the flu or any flu like symptoms in my past. But at this point in my life I have 3 children all under the age of 10.It is recommended that I receive the vaccince in order to protect them but is it really necessary if they are already protected. Research In order to make my decision on whether I should go for the vaccine or not, first things first, I have to collect the data about the severity of the virus and amount of damage which can be done. The data for the decision-making is collected from the various sources such as Center for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) and Census. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). The first set of data collected is about the incidence of 2009 H1N1 flu in individuals in US. The incidence of virus is quite high in young children in age group 1-4 with average 22.9 cases reported for every 100 thousand population and in young people between 5-24 years reporting 26.7 cases in per 100 thousand people. However, relevant data point here is the incidence of 2009 H1N1 flu for people in my age group of 25-49 years. The relevant rate here is 6.97 per 100 thousand. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). The next set of data collected about the H1N1 virus is the rate of hospitalization. In most of the cases, the flu is cured without any hospitalization. However, in certain cases where the influence of the virus is severe hospitalization is required. The data collected about the extreme cases where the virus caused the death in my age category, are a total of 124 deaths reported so far. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). After collecting the information on the incidence and severity of the disease, I collected the data about the H1N1 vaccine. The vaccine is still under production and it is said to prevent flu 70 - 90% in healthy persons under the age of 65. The vaccine is 30-70% effective in preventing the hospitalization for flu and there are zero percent chances to get the flu from the shot. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). Conditional Probability and Expected Value We can use the concepts of probability here to calculate the probability of my being affected by the H1N1 virus. P (H1N1 Flu) = 6.97/100000 = 0.0000697. Similarly, the probability of being hospitalized due to 2009 H1N1 virus P (Hospitalization due to H1N1 Flu) = 1.1/100000=0.000011 We use the concept of conditional probability to calculate the probability of being hospitalized if the virus affects me. P (Hospitalization / H1N1 Flu) = P (Hospitalization due to H1N1 Flu) / P (H1N1 Flu) = 0.000011/0.0000697 = 0.1578 To calculate the probability of death, we first collect the population of US in the age group of 25-49 years. The population as per census data is 52,457,833. Using this the probability of death due to H1N1 virus is: P (Death from H1N1 virus) =124/52,457,833 = 0.000002364 Again, using the concept of condition probability to calculate the probability of death given that I am hospitalized P (Death/Hospitalization) = P (Death due to H1N1 flue) / P (Hospitalization due to H1N1 Flu) = 0.000002364/0.0000697 = 0.0339 In the above decision, I have not considered the probability of death. The probability of death due to H1N1 virus is 0.000002364 or 0.2364 per 100 thousand. If I compare this with the per 100 thousand deaths in US due to road accidents at 14.75, the risk of death due to H1N1 virus is much lower than every day risk I take while driving. I would select to go with no vaccination (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2009). Decision The purpose of this exercise is to understand the best course of action and understand the risk involved with it. We are taking a calculated risk and preparing ourselves to mitigate that risk. The best decision for me is not to go for the H1N1 vaccine. This decision involves risk as the probability of being affected by the virus is slightly higher as compared to that in case of vaccination. I need to take proper care as listed on the CDC website to prevent myself from being affected by the virus. References Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2009) Vaccine against 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus Recommendations for Vaccine against 2009 H1N1 Influenza Virus. Retrieved feb. 28, 2010. From: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/public/vaccination_qa_pub.htm