China_Hegemony

International relations examine the security, welfare, order, justice and economics between countries (Lecture 1). The studies can go back from the war in Versailles, the two world wars and even to the present conflict between U.S. and Iraq. International relations can change drastically in a short time frame. Despite the changes, few nations have changed as fast, or as dramatically as China has since the 1970s. China has had many foreign policies since the founding of the PRC in 1949. (Dreyer, article 3) China, a country, with a population of 1.33 billion (The World Factbook) has liberalized its economy and gone from producing low quality and simple exports to sophisticated high technology goods. Many scholars argue that, China is a country which is working towards becoming the next superpower. Political scientists believe that China may become the next hegemony state as the country has expanded enormously in terms of foreign affairs, economy, military, and its role in the United Nations and World Trade Organization. According to Charles Kindleberger’s hegemonic stability theory, he argued that the dominant power does not merely manipulate international economic relations for its own sake; it creates an open world economy based on free trade which is to the benefit of all participating states and not only the hegemon. (Jackson, p. 196) Despite the prediction of China’s status from many scholars, China will not be a hegemonic state in the foreseeable future as China will need to prioritize and redirect the country’s principles and regulations in order for them to avoid speculation and judgments from other countries (i.e. United States and European Union). This essay will be analyzing China’s economy, examining their military strength and also investigating on human rights regulation to illustrate that China cannot be the next hegemonic state in the near future. China is in every sense a world under construction, with the physical, social, economic, legal and institutional blueprints being drawn and revised daily as the construction proceeds. With this daily change within the country, many of us cannot determine the internal affairs that are happening within the country simply due to the fact that we need to respect state sovereignty. Due to the lack of transparency, many western countries are more reserve in terms of trust in comparison to the United States if China was to become the next hegemon. China’s economic development in the last twenty years has been dramatic, raising hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and creating a significant middle class.  However, the progress has been uneven with the coastal provinces doing much better than the inland areas.  There are still many poor people living in the rural countryside.  In the cities, income disparity is also growing.  Land acquisition has created considerable social tension. (Zheng, article 6) Since the day that China became a formal member of the World Trade Organization, its economy has flourished enormously, as they export much more around the world. Nevertheless, the most recent American economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East has resulted in China being affected. Furthermore, China is a country depends heavily on export and foreign investment. Since the recent economic crisis in North America and Europe, it has proven that, China is not immune to this crisis and that their economy is not as independent as they claimed to be. Many Chinese financial institutions, especially large banks and insurance companies, already lost hundreds of billions of dollars during the current crisis. (Huang, article 1) When examining China’s economy, it takes the approach that economic activity is and should be subordinated to the primary goal of building a strong state. In short economic is the tool of a basis for political power. (Jackson, p. 181) China used the free trade system to accumulate personal gain as they have high production rate due to cheap labor. Although, the World Trade Organization is suppose to benefit all members but China’s gain is far greater in recent year. Exports are about 36% of China’s GDP and contributed 3-4 percentage points to China’s GDP growth in recent years. (Huang, article 1) In short, China has been competing with the United States and European Union since it was established a member of the WTO. In brief, economic competition between states is a ‘zero-sum game’ where one state’s gain is another state’s loss. (Jackson, p. 181) We can observe this in recent report on employment rate around North America in comparison to China, as many MNCs invest continuously into China this created many job losses in North America and it has also affected Europe. One can find many dissatisfactory outcome when examining China’s labor force and economic market that include, benefit and regulations; as many are aware that China did very little for its workers. China has satisfactory national laws about minimum wages and hours, child labor, food and other product safety, worker safety, intellectual property, and air and water pollution. But the central government has not effectively empowered judges and prosecutors to enforce these laws, because they are controlled by provincial and local party leaders. (Bleicher, article 2) These officials, who often benefit personally or professionally from the success of local profit-making enterprises, are rarely inclined toward enforcement. Moreover, a significant part of China’s current price competitiveness has grown out of rearrangement of the costs of safe and sustainable management of their natural and human resources. (Dreyer, article 3) International political power is largely derived from the world’s perception of a nation’s independent economic resources; China cannot afford to risk significant economic resources in international political competition. In comparison, United States runs under a liberalist approach as their goal is to have the marketplace that is an open arena where individuals come together to exchange goods and services. (Jackson, p. 185) Since the United States is the superpower, they are able to have control over many lesser power countries; however, they created a system where all countries can trade fairly and equally. United States also cooperate with many other countries to have a system for imports from other countries; for example U.S. is a member of NAFTA, where they can trade with Canada and Mexico without tariffs. When examining U.S. labor force, one can determine that they are very well treated as many workers are benefited by unions; many companies planned for workers’ retirement as they help them purchase retirement plans and Medicare. In short a hegemonic state can be determined partly by a country’s economy. As for China, it cannot be a hegemon due to the fact that the country’s main focus is on self interest and not about cooperating with the world. Alongside the export sector and workers benefit, the country needs to figure out a way to reduce waste when producing goods that means they need to work alongside Japan, Canada and EU to prevent pollution. Furthermore, a dramatic slowdown in the Chinese or world economy could disrupt the lives of millions of factory workers. Serious rationing of water, food, or energy, whether by dramatic price increases or some other mechanism, could be unacceptably painful for a large part of the population. (Twining, article 4) A country’s economic state can determine whether the country is capable of becoming the next superpower, nonetheless, military strength plays an important role. China’s military strength in comparison with the U.S. is considered to be medium according to Robert Jackson’s book. China is expanding its military spending and technical capabilities, but it is hardly a global threat in any rational context. The Pentagon estimates 2006 Chinese military spending at less than $90 billion; most other estimates are lower. Compare that amount to the $440 billion FY 2007 appropriation for U.S. military spending, not counting $50 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan. (Bleicher, article 2) According to China’s present state of military strength, it cannot compete with the United States. As realists argue that military security should be the dominant aspect of the country, (Jackson, p. 106) and they also thought humans are characterized as being preoccupied with their own well-being in their competitive relations with each other. (Jackson, p.60) In terms of main driver for power, when comparing their military strength one can conclude that the leader is the U.S. This military balance against China severely limits any rational military ambitions. China’s only active military focus grows out of its adamant opposition to Taiwan’s independence, an issue that appears likely to recede as a result of this year’s elections in Taiwan. (Bleicher, article 2) China certainly wants enough military capability to make its threat of military action credible to Taiwan, the United States, and Japan. The Chinese tradition of military strategy is built around outwitting and outmaneuvering the enemy, not applying overwhelming brute force. For that purpose the appearance of strength is important, but the actual use of force would reflect a strategic failure. Throughout history, many states have sought power by means of military force and territorial expansion. However, for many highly industrialized countries economic development and foreign trade are more satisfactory and less costly mean to achieve that goal. As many countries, including European Union, Canada and Japan are flourishing in a constant pace although their military strength is considered to be weak. In comparison to China, United States do not use their military power to seek personal gain; although United States’ troops are currently in Afghanistan, but they are there for a purpose. The purpose for U.S. troops to go into Afghanistan is to liberate women, to improve the standard of living and introducing globalization. By observation, one can argue that China’s military strength is by far less sophisticated than the U.S. as their military expense is less than one quarter of the U.S. annual expenses according to the Pentagon. With so little investment in military expansion, China will not be able to grow as quickly as it wants to be. Although China has no threats from its neighbor countries however, in order to have significant power they need to focus more on expansion and invest more on military funding if they want to become the next hegemon. In addition to China’s economy and military strength, the fundamental part of being a hegemon is respecting human rights. Human rights is defined as fundamental rights, esp. those believed to belong to an individual and in whose exercise a government may not interfere, as the rights to speak, associate, work, etc. (dictionary.com) When examining past and present cases in China, one can confirm that Chinese citizens do not have human rights. Since the establishment of PRC in 1949, the PRC followed a “lean to one side” policy. As explained by Chairman Mao Zedong, this meant that “whoever is not with us” the socialist-communist camp “is against us.” (Dreyer, article 3) On June 4, 1989 the Tiananmen Square culminating in the Tiananmen Square Massacre, protests in 1989 were in large measure sparked by the death of former Secretary General Hu Yaobang. (Zheng, article 6) Hu Yaobang's resignation from the position of Secretary General of the CPC had been announced on 16 January 1987. (Blecher, M article 5) Some students and intellectuals believed that the reforms had not gone far enough and that China needed to reform its political system. They were also concerned about the social and political controls that the Communist Party of China still had. The protests led to a massacre, the number of deceased were from 400 to 800 civilians. (Zheng, article 6) This confirmed that Chinese government will go to extreme measure when they try to restrict freedom of speech; as they used forces that were not to be used against civilians, i.e. tank man. (Blecher, M article 5) In addition to the Tiananmen Square Massacre, the most recent problem is Chinese government banning practice of religion. On July 20, 1999 the government of the People's Republic of China issued a statement "banning" Falun Gong. (People’s Daily) A statement made by the minister of civil affair, which states “China today banned the Research Society of Falun Dafa and the Falun Gong organization under its control after deeming them to be illegal. In its decision on this matter issued today, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said that according to investigations, the Research Society of Falun Dafa had not been registered according to law and had been engaged in illegal activities, advocating superstition and spreading fallacies, hoodwinking people, inciting and creating disturbances, and jeopardizing social stability.” (People’s Daily) Moreover, banning the practice escalated to a persecution. Individuals who practice Falun Gong, they are facing illegal imprisonment or torture while being imprisoned including forced labor, and psychiatric abuses. (Foot, article 6) The above cases illustrated Chinese government’s method of running its country as they have little concern when providing human rights for its citizens. According to Chinese official, they argue that the notion of human rights should include economic standards of living and measures of health and economic prosperity, and notes progress in that area. Their main focus is nonetheless, by elaborating on economic gain and strengthening military force. In a realist perspective, one will agree with this notion because the success of a country cannot depend on accessing human rights issue, however without human rights citizens will be living in fear as they need to suppress all thoughts to prevent unnecessary torture and punishment. In comparison, a liberalist will disagree with this notion of a country’s success. As liberalist believed that human progress is very essential and human rights provide thoughts and point of view to improve the status of the country. As citizens can provide knowledge which will help flourish a state. For all industrialized countries that provide human rights, one can conclude that they have more stability and overall they are better off. By examining the human rights issue in United States one can suggest that because citizens are allowed more rights to express their opinions, hence the country’s science and technology development is much stronger than China. Furthermore, there is less propaganda in the U.S. when government officials are making wrong decisions; for example, the war in Iraq is considered to be unjust for American citizens, therefore citizens elected a democratic president to voice their disagreement to President Bush’s policy. Overall, China needs to persuade other countries that they are raising peacefully. They need to meet the definition of human rights, they need to improve and provide more incite. China needs to solve human rights issue within the country and project peace globally. Transparency of the country needs to be augmented so that trust can be gain in the international platform. While United States has been a hegemon for over one century, for China to emerge to such level it has to project its global power in both hard and soft fashions, currently China cannot. China needs to cooperate with others to help solve international human rights issues and more importantly they need to create a system to solve capital punishment, death penalty. To determine a hegemon state is more than the examination of economy and military force, the well being of the country’s citizens is the fundamental aspect of a flourished country. China can only be a hegemon if this basic fundamental aspect is solved, however, in the foreseeable future this issue cannot be resolve. It is important to focus on this topic as the emerging of a new hegemon will indicate a change in international relations. Many scholars argued that, China may be heading towards a hegemony state. However, as many believe that China still has a lot of obstacles to solve because the country’s every move is being observed. In the speech that Premier H.E. Wen Jiabao made on September 24, 2008 at the 63rd Session of UN general assembly. He stated that, “China's development is peaceful in nature. It will not harm anyone or pose a threat to anyone. China does not seek hegemony now, nor will it do so in the future. China keeps and develops an appropriate level of military capability solely for the purpose of safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The confidence and pride of the Chinese nation today are based on China's economic development, social justice, civility of the people and moral strength. China will, through its own development, contribute to peace and development of the world.” When analyzing this speech, one can determine that China is heading toward a defensive realist approach because they are pleased with the prevailing balance of power when it safeguards their security. (Jackson, p. 229) In relation to the scholars’ argument, the premier confirmed that he expects China to develop in a growing pace and not to hold all the power like hegemon would. Furthermore, China is a country that depends heavily on export and foreign investment. With the recent global economic crisis, it is extremely hard for China to change its approach. Moreover, hegemony cannot be adopted overnight, in order for China to be a hegemon it requires the country’s commitment to provide stability and trust to the world. In addition to world support, China needs to resolve conflicts internally, the most elemental issue, human rights. Furthermore, China needs to strengthen their economy, hence they require less dependency on foreign investment and exports; the fact that they have 1.3 billion people in the country, they need to work around this figure to have further growth. Most importantly, China needs to be transparent on their military growth so that they do not project threats to their neighboring countries; at the same time, the growth requires more funding as the country cannot compare with U.S. spending in terms of investment to their military force. Finally, if China was to meet all expectations and criteria of a hegemon and they become the next hegemonic state. Will the world be benefit from another superpower' An explicit answer would be uncertain because we may have to reverse back to a bipolar state system. For many realists, they believe that the world can only have stability when it is a bipolar system. However, as we can observe from the Cold War only two superpowers are benefit from this system. As for the other countries, they will once again have to choose between the two and tag along without much choice. Another issue may be that because of sophisticated weapons and nuclear bombs, if the two superpowers choose to have a hot war instead of a cold war then the world will come to an end. Annotated Bibliography: The following documents will be examining the question thoroughly throughout this essay as they will provide political information, scholars’ confirmation, and Chinese leaders’ vision for their country. Ness, Peter Van. “Hegemony, not anarchy: Why China and Japan are not balancing US unipolar power” International Relations of the Asian-Pacific 2002: 131-150. In this article, the author elaborate on US being a hegemon and the role that China plays in this system. This article provides an in depth breakdown as to how the two countries can avoid another Cold War. Premier Wen, Jiabao. “China Committed to Reform and Opening-up and Peaceful Development” 63rd Session of UN General Assembly Sept 24, 2008: 1-2. This is a speech, which the premier elaborate on his view of China’s foreign political platform and China’s near future. This speech provides a clear sight on China’s political direction in the near future. Zheng, Bijian. “Ten views on China’s Development Road of Peaceful Rise and Sino European Relations” Foreign Affairs Oct 12, 2007. This is a article provide details of China as a whole, military, economy, religion and defined his view on China and the improvements it needs to have to become successful. Blecher, Marc J. “Hegemony and Workers’ Politics in China”. Foreign Policy in Focus This article focuses on the role of workers’ hegemonic acceptance of the core values of the market and state. A contribution to the reaction of citizens in China and their point of view if China becoming a hegemony. Bleicher, Samuel A. “China: Superpower or Basket Case'” Foreign Policy in Focus May 8, 2008: 1-3. The author examines the whether China is heading in the superpower direction. This article provides the strengths and weaknesses of China as a superpower. Dreyer, June Teufel. “Chinese Foreign Policy” The Newsletter of FPRI’s Wachman Center for International Education Feb, 2007: Vol. 12, No. 5. The author defines Chinese foreign policy and expanded his study from the 1950s to present. This article contributes a clearer definition of Chinese foreign policy. Huang, Yiping “China not immune from the US financial crisis”. East Asia Forum. Oct 8, 2008 This article provides the updated economic issues in the US and around the world. This article provides solid confirmation that China depends heavily on western market. Jackson, Robert & Sorensen, Georg. “Introduction to International Relations” 2007: 196. Oxford, New York. This book provides definition on the theories. It provides Charles Kindleberger’s definition on hegemonic stability theory, definition of realism and liberalism. “China Bans Falun Gong” People’s Daily July 22, 1999. This article provides a declaration of banning Falun Gong practice in China. “Human Rights” Dictionary.com November 19, 2008. This website provided a definition for this essay. Twining, Daniel. “Asia’s Challenge to China” Financial Time September 25, 2007. This article provided incite on Chinese economic platform.