Azerbaijan

Regional Strategic Concept Point Paper SUBJECT: Assessment of the Caucasus region 1. ISSUE: Provide Command an overview of Azerbaijan’s approach to the situation in the Caucasus Region 2. FACTS: a. Primary National Interest: 1. The major domestic and international issue affecting Azerbaijan is the cultural dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian region within Azerbaijan. Negotiations to resolve the conflict peacefully have been ongoing since 1992 under the protection of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). 2. In July 1992, Azerbaijan ratified the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which establishes comprehensive limits on key categories of conventional military equipment and provides for the destruction of weaponry in excess of those limits. Although Azerbaijan did not provide all data required by the treaty on its conventional forces at that time, it has accepted on-site inspections of forces on its territory. Azerbaijan approved the CFE flank agreement in May 1997. It also has acceded to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapons state. 3. Azerbaijan has concluded 28 production-sharing agreements with various oil companies. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is now operational and has a maximum capacity of one million barrels per day. A parallel Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas export pipeline opened in September 2006. In October 2008, the first tanker carrying oil from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field departed for Azerbaijan. New pipeline and delivery route systems for natural gas through the southern corridor to Europe are currently being considered and negotiated. b. Objectives: (1). Successful resolution to civil conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region resulting in tighter control of the region by the central Azerbaijan Government. (2). Decreased international interference with military and self-defense programs while preventing neighboring countries from developing nuclear and conventional weapons programs that would constitute a threat to national security. (3). Continued development of the economic infrastructure, specifically in the area of oil field opening, production and transport. c. Azerbaijan’s most likely actions: (1). Diplomatic: Continued negotiations with the OSCE as regards Nargano-Karabakh stressing the need to stop all rebellion in the area while pursuing police action in the area. (2). Informational: Use of local, national and international media to publicize their intent for a peaceful solution to the civil war. (3). Military: Continued alliance with NATO including peacekeeping issues in Iraq and Afghanistan. Of primary importance is allowing flyover of national airspace by NATO partners into Afghanistan. (4). Economic: Continued membership in the UN, GUAM, OCSE, International Monetary Fund and other international organizations and multinational treaties. d. Top Three U.S. Programs in Azerbaijan (1). Freedom Support Act (22 million) (2). Investing in People (3.12 million) (3). Governing Justly and Democratically (10.1 million) 3. IMPACT: International Military presence is important to the political and social stabilization of the Caspian area. One factor is due to the continued need of the Azerbaijan air corridor by EUCOM and in pursuit of Operation Enduring Freedom. Another important issue is to prevent diversion of the defunct Soviet Union nuclear arsenal weapons to terrorist organizations and outlaw nations. Other important concerns are to stop further proliferation of extremist social and religious organizations in the area and to continue international investment in local oil production and sales on the international market. Coord: none ASSESSING WRITING CGSC Form 1009w WRITER: DATE: | ASSIGNMENT/COURSE TITLE: C206 Regional Strategic Concept Point Paper | INSTRUCTOR/DEPARTMENT: | ARMY STANDARD defines good writing as “understandable in a single, rapid reading and generally free of errors in grammar, mechanics, and usage.” | GRADE: A+ | A | A- | B+ | B | B- | C+ | C | C- | U | I | | | | | | | | | | | | COGNITIVE LEVEL ATTAINED (Higher levels include characteristics of lower levels.) | | EVALUATION (Judging or weighing by building and using criteria and standards.) | | SYNTHESIS (Integrating parts into a new whole.) | | ANALYSIS (Breaking material down into component parts to determine structures and relationships.) | | APPLICATION (Use of knowledge to solve problems.) | | COMPREHENSION (Understanding of the material.) | | KNOWLEDGE (Recall of specific information.) | Instructor Comments: Using a scale of 1-10 (10 is high) for feedback on each element. There is no cumulative rating._______ Paper is in accordance with the format provided_______ Identified Azerbaijan’s primary national interest with clear reasoning of why it is the primary national interest (-) reasoning behind selection is unclear (-) reasoning behind selection absent_______ Linkage between Azerbaijan’s objectives and the identified interest is evident (-) linkage to national interest is unclear (-) linkage to national interest is absent_______ Addresses all the instruments of power (DIME) with some explanation (-) identifies actions for instruments of national power (DIME) (-) marginal information_______ Includes three U.S. programs, at least one of which is not a DoD program, and some useful information (-) all three programs are DoD with marginal information (-) less than three programs without program informationStudent Comments: | Writing Assignment | Based on your research and the Guide to Regional Strategic Concept Development, write a paper for the EUCOM Commander that answers the following questions: 1. What is Azerbaijan’s primary national interest in regards to the Caucasus Region' 2. What objectives will Azerbaijan pursue in support of this interest' 3. For each instrument of power (DIME – Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic), describe the action Azerbaijan will most likely take. 4. List the top three U.S. programs (not limited to security cooperation) in Azerbaijan, at least one of which is not a DoD program. | Performance Level | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Student Assessment Faculty | Introduction | | No stated purpose. | Purpose for writing is vague or not clearly stated. | Purpose for writing is clear and specific. | | | No clear thesis. | Thesis is not focused or not relevant to the purpose. | Thesis is clearly stated and focused. | | | No introduction of major points. | Vague introduction of major points. | Clear introduction of major points that are relevant to the thesis. | | Development | | Major points do not support thesis. | Major points partially support thesis. | Major points fully support thesis. | | | Fails to consider multiple viewpoints. | Presents other points of view but does not reason through them. | Clearly and fairly discusses multiple points of view. | | | Does not address implications or consequences of the proposed assertion (thesis). | Partially addresses implications or consequences of the proposed assertion (thesis). | Addresses implications or consequences of the proposed assertion (thesis). | | | Sequencing of major/minor points does not support writer’s purpose. | Sequencing of major/minor points partially supports writer’s purpose. | Sequencing of major/minor points effectively supports writer’s purpose. | | | Fails to show how evidence supports main points/thesis. | Weak analysis of evidence to show how it supports main points/thesis. | Clear reasoning that shows how evidence supports main points/thesis. | | | Does not anticipate questions. | Identifies but does not answer anticipated questions. | Identifies and answers anticipated questions. | | | Fallacies abound within the essay. | Some fallacies exist within the essay. | Essay is free of fallacies. | | | No transitions. | Transitions are not always clear. | Transitions effectively connect major/minor points. | | Conclusion | | No conclusion or one that does not support the thesis. | Conclusion partially supports thesis. | Conclusion is clear and reinforces thesis and major parts. | | | Conclusion is disconnected from the evidence and reasoning, or it introduces new ideas. | Conclusion is not strongly linked to the evidence and reasoning, or it is not concise. | Conclusion is fully justified by the evidence and the reasoning, and it is concise. | | Style and Grammar | | Numerous wordy and vague sentences. | Some sentences are not always clear. | Clear, concise sentences. | | | Paragraphs contain sentences not relevant to the topic. | Some paragraphs are confusing or vague. | Clear, concise paragraphs that include topic sentences. | | | Primarily passive voice. | Some passive voice – not excessive. | Primarily active voice. | | | Numerous errors in grammar, punctuation or spelling. | Only a few errors in grammar, punctuation or spelling. | Only one or two errors in grammar, punctuation, or spelling. | |