Azerbaijan_Point_Paper

AZERBAIJAN POINT PAPER 27 September 2011 SUBJECT: Assessment of the Caucasus Region ISSUE: Provide the USEUCOM Commander an overview of Azerbaijan’s approach to the situation in the Caucasus Region. FACTS. Primary National Interest: Azerbaijan has been following an independent foreign policy since gaining independence in 1991. This policy aims at the strengthening and development of the state system and the protection of the national interests of Azerbaijan. The primary national interest in regards to the Caucasus Region involves such urgent issues as the risk and challenge to national security and territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of the republic and the prevention of the intervention of the Republic of Armenia. The major domestic and international issue affecting Azerbaijan is the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian region within Azerbaijan. The origins of the Nagorno (or Mountainous) Karabagh - Artsakh conflict reach back to the formation of the Soviet Union in the early 1920s. In 1921, responding to blackmail from oil-producing Azerbaijan and threats from Turkey, Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin forcibly placed Artsakh, populated 95 percent by the Armenians, under the Azerbaijani rule. That decision was the source of the region's continuous opposition to the authority of the Soviet Azerbaijani republic. During the seven decades of the USSR's existence, the government of Soviet Azerbaijan conducted a systematic policy of removal of Karabagh Armenians from their historic homeland. While Soviet statistics are not always reliable and have been suspected of deliberately undercounting ethnicity figures, they show that from 1923 to 1979 the Armenian population of Karabagh was reduced from 150,000 to 120,000, while the influx of new settlers increased the Azeri population five-fold from 7,500 in 1923 to 38,000 in 1979. This radical change in Karabagh's ethno-demographic composition has exacerbated decades of conflict between Azerbaijan and the Armenians of Karabagh. Despite repeated appeals to Moscow to rectify the political status of Nagorno Karabagh, the matter remained unresolved until 1987-88 when Mikhail Gorbachev announced the new policy of "perestroika." At that time a political rights movement emerged in Karabagh and found strong support in Armenia. As the movement gained momentum, it was met by massacres and other acts of violence against Armenians in Sumgait, Baku, and other places in Azerbaijan. This violence was followed by the 1991-1994 Azeri instigated war on the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR), which claimed thousands of NK casualties and destroyed an estimated 80 percent of Nagorno Karabakh's economy. In the summer of 1992 Azerbaijan placed about 50% of the NKR territory under military occupation. The Nagorno Karabakh defense forces succeeded in liberating previously captured territories from Azerbaijan and, during the war, occupied a few Azerbaijani regions bordering the NKR that had been used as firing lines against the Armenians. The creation of the security zone precluded the immediate threat facing the peaceful population of the NKR. Since 1992 the main vehicle for the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict has been the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has sought to mediate a durable peace settlement. The Minsk Group, currently co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France, has come forward with a series of proposals to solve the crisis. Most recently, a draft document on peaceful settlement of the conflict was presented to the parties by the foreign ministers of US Russia and France at the end of 2007. Objectives in pursuit of the primary national interest: Continue international negotiations to resolve the long-standing ethnic conflict with Armenia. Doubt exists that the two leaders have the political will to make a settlement decision. Negotiations continue but must get past the phase of building confidence. Develop a pluralist democracy based on market economy and supremacy of law Development of friendly neighborhood and mutual advantageous relations with bordering states Integration to structures of European and Transatlantic security and cooperation including NATO, the European Union, the Union of Western Europe and the Council of Europe Azerbaijan’s Likely actions: Diplomatic: Azerbaijan will continue to conduct resolution talks with Armenia to have occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh returned to Azerbaijan control. Informational: Show strong public support for national sovereignty and democracy. Messages for employment, media and electoral reform likely. Military: Azerbaijan is continuing to build their military, despite rise in defense budget, armed forces do not have high state of battle readiness and ill prepared to sustain wide scale combat operations. Economic: Fulfill the goal of becoming part of the European Union. Continue to seek assistance from Western donors and private investment. Top three U.S. programs in Azerbaijan: The Department of State’s new humanitarian initiative to improve living conditions with the development of schools, clinics, orphanages and elderly homes. This promotes a higher standard of living. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s funding of childhood vaccinations via grants for wheat totaling 3.4 million continues to improve living conditions The Freedom Support Act provides 39 million for democracy, humanitarianism and reform assistance combined with favored nation status seeks to improve the government of Azerbaijan. IMPACT: Need to continue strong U.S. relations with Azerbaijan which allows for more regional stability and secure access to diverse energy resources in a critical strategic corridor. Secure and diversified Azerbaijan oil and natural gas resources potentially could lessen Western energy dependence on Russia and the Middle East. Azerbaijan continues to be a strategic partner in the war on terror. It supports the transit of military supplies for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan. Azerbaijan provides overflight, landing routes, refueling and major land transportation routes for critical military supply lines. The long term Nagorno-Karabakh conflict challenges regional security and has the potential to ignite a high intense obstacle for stability. The U.S. reaffirmed strong support for the OSCE Minsk Group peace process. This peace will create favorable security conditions for open market economy and continued foreign investment. The U.S. is committed to assist in reforms in governmental and economic growth.