服务承诺
资金托管
原创保证
实力保障
24小时客服
使命必达
51Due提供Essay，Paper，Report，Assignment等学科作业的代写与辅导，同时涵盖Personal Statement，转学申请等留学文书代写。
51Due将让你达成学业目标51Due将让你达成学业目标51Due将让你达成学业目标51Due将让你达成学业目标私人订制你的未来职场 世界名企，高端行业岗位等 在新的起点上实现更高水平的发展
积累工作经验
多元化文化交流
专业实操技能
建立人际资源圈Plaza accord effect analysis of the yen--Paper代写范文
2016-09-14 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Paper范文
Paper代写范文:“Plaza accord effect analysis of the yen”，这篇论文主要描述的是在20世纪末广场协议的签订也就意味着日本的经济开始走向了下坡路，广场协议后日元不断的升值，使得日本的进出口贸易和社会经济都产生了重大的影响，日本陷入了经济泡沫的危机当中，间接的导致日本经济的发展倒退，中国经济的发展迅速与当时的日本相当，但是中国的经济发展的同时也带来了与日本当年相似的困境，中国要如何才能不重蹈覆辙成为了我们需要探讨的话题。
Over the past decade, China's economic performance in the 1980s with the Japanese economy has striking similarities. In 2010 the scale of China's economy surpassed Japan became the world's second largest economy. However, China's economy maintained strong growth while also facing worrying issues, such as domestic inflation, asset prices rising rapidly, with major industrial countries international trade friction continues to heat up, the RMB appreciation pressure is huge and so on. And Japan since the 1980s "Plaza Agreement" signed, who has appeared in the appreciation of the yen shock, collapse of the bubble economy, inflation and a series of serious problems. In this context, many scholars began nearly a decade China's economic development and in the 1980s to compare the performance of the Japanese economy that Japan is China yesterday, today, China is repeat the Japanese experience. However, at least two questions on the above point of view constitutes a challenge: first, whether the appreciation of the yen will surely be a negative impact on Japan's export capacity? Second, Japan's trade surplus is the cause of the decrease of the bubble and the subsequent economic recession the culprit?
Around these issues, scholars have formed two observations: First, some scholars believe that "Plaza Agreement" trade with Japan had a serious impact, not only causes the formation of the bubble economy, but also Japan's "lost decade" of the culprit . For example, Kim Young-Harcourt, FUKAO Beijing Division, Makino Kui rule that the "Plaza Agreement" gave birth to the appreciation of the yen after Japan's bubble economy of the formation and expansion. Haruhiko Kuroda stressed that the Japanese yen is one of the causes of inflation, the Japanese economy has caused tremendous stress. Koichi Hamada and Yasushi Okada believes that because the Japanese government after the collapse of the bubble series of monetary and fiscal policy mistakes prolonged recession in Japan, thus resulting in Japan's "lost decade." Second, some scholars argue that appreciation of the yen while the Japanese economy also has some degree of positive effect. They emphasized the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen enterprises worldwide for large-scale expansion provides a good opportunity to help the healthy development of the Japanese economy. For example, Xiao Dong Hung and Wu Bo that the "Plaza Agreement" after the Japan-US trade deficit is not significantly reduced, but a structural change, the yen is not underestimating the Japan-US trade imbalance is caused by the underlying causes. Gang Ming Yuan pointed out that the appreciation of the yen after the yen-represented reduce the price of imported goods, to bring costs down, the positive effect of rising profits. Manufacturers Qing army that Japanese companies to appreciation of the yen as an opportunity, through technical innovation and enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry.
But these two schools of thought are not contradictory, the former concern is the "Plaza Agreement" short-term impact, while the latter focus on study long-term effects of the appreciation of the yen. To fully explore the appreciation of the yen against the Japanese import and export trade, the paper attempts to influence short-term effects and long-term effects into separately research, particularly distinguish between two different mechanisms of effect. Author by Pangde Liang Hung Yu inspired, that "cost-driven endogenous innovation mechanism." The so-called "cost-driven endogenous innovation mechanism" refers to the exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of rising export costs for domestic exporters to pursue innovation. Specifically: When a country's exchange rate stable, exports in the international market to maintain a strong competitive edge, which will maintain the existing level of technology and management to be the best choice, exporters pursuit of innovative power and low pressure; When the currency appreciation, the increase in the cost of exports, exports in the international market competitiveness weakened, the exchange rate risk would force exporters to improve awareness of innovation, improve management. Pangde Liang, Hung Yu pointed out that oil prices and energy prices in the short term, although hindered the development of the Japanese economy, but in the long term will be forced Japanese manufacturers to reduce energy costs, develop new energy sources "endogenous technological advancement mechanism." Thus, the author attempts to extend this view to the field of international trade, exports of exchange rate fluctuations caused by rising costs are forcing Japanese exporters will also increase technological innovation, the compression cost of exports to offset the exchange rate on exports weakened.
"Cost-driven endogenous innovation mechanism," manifested as a long-term effect. "Plaza Agreement", the Japanese export enterprises are facing rising cost pressures. For export-oriented economic development model of Japan's long-term economic growth, exports formed a path-dependent, it is difficult in a short time to adjust. However, Japan's export enterprises in order to survive and develop long-term path of innovation is bound. This "endogenous innovation-driven exchange rate mechanism" is likely to be partially offset by the "Plaza Accord" negative effects, and even through spillover effects driven the pace of innovation in other sectors, and thus long-term development of the Japanese economy produces positive effects.
Second, the "Plaza Agreement" appreciation of the yen after the analysis of short-and long-term effects
1 yen exchange rate changes
In order to reflect exchange rate movements on the international competitiveness of both countries the actual impact, I use the yen real exchange rate to illustrate the "Plaza Agreement" before and after the yen movements. The exchange rate is the author of the IMF website IFS database obtained from 1970 to 2012 yen against the U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate monthly data, U.S. CPI and CPI monthly data calculated in Japan, where the CPI in the U.S. and Japan are to U.S. dollars, to 2005 as the base year of the index represents.
From 1971 to 1995, the nominal exchange rate yen from 360 yen / $ 1 up to ￥ 128 / $ 1, the rate reached 64.4% appreciation of the yen real exchange rate from ￥ 219 / $ 1 up to 87 yen / $ 1, the appreciation rate was 60.3%. During this period, there have been three times more substantial yen appreciation. The first stage is from 1976 to 1978, the real exchange rate from ￥ 148 yen / $ 1 up to ￥ 86 / $ 1, the appreciation rate was 41.8%. The second stage is from 1985 to 1988, the yen exchange rate from 157 motohi / $ 1 up to ￥ 86 / $ 1, the appreciation rate of 45.2%. This phase is mainly due to appreciation of the yen since the 1980s, Japan began expanding trade surplus, foreign exchange reserves increased rapidly, with the United States and other Western countries along with trade friction intensified. As trade and fiscal deficits double the U.S. to become the world's number one debtor nation, while Japan is because they have a huge trade surplus, the largest U.S. creditor. The third stage is from 1992 to 1995, the yen from 92.3 yen / 1 dollar rose to 65.5 yen / $ 1, the appreciation rate reached 29%.
(2) changes in Japan's total trade
According to the traditional theory of international trade, a country's currency appreciation will lead to reduced exports, increased imports, reducing the balance of payments, deteriorating terms of trade. However, the "Plaza Agreement" appreciation of the yen after Japan 'Trade is not the case. I will be "Plaza Accord" into the impact on the Japanese import short-term effects and long-term effects were investigated and found: In the short term, the Japanese yen is indeed the formation of export scale impact; however the long term appreciation of the yen did not Japan's exports have substantial impact, they became Japanese companies to promote innovation inherent dynamism. (A) short-term changes in Japan's total trade
From 1980 to 1983, Japan's exports to the United States long-term steady growth, the average monthly exports of 3.14 billion U.S. dollars, the average monthly growth rate of 26.5%. Since 1983, Japan's exports to the U.S. rose rapidly from January 1983 to $ 2.54 billion increased sharply to July 1985 "Plaza Agreement" on the eve of 5.991 billion U.S. dollars, up 135 percent rise. Japan's exports to the world from February 1983 to $ 11.08 billion in December 1985 to $ 17.97 billion, up 62.2 percent year rise. However, in the "Plaza Accord" within six months after the signing of Japanese exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply from October 1985 to $ 6.337 billion in January 1986 fell to $ 5.089 billion, a decrease of 24.5%. Japan's exports to the world is equally clear drop from December 1985 to $ 17.97 billion quickly slipped to January 1986 of $ 12.93 billion, a decrease of 28 percentage points.On the contrary, from the import side, pushing the Japanese yen against the U.S. and the continued growth of world imports, with the traditional international trade theory. 1980 to 1985, Japan's monthly imports of U.S. $ 2 billion long-term stability in the level of world imports of $ 11.24 billion monthly average. After the appreciation of the yen, Japan's imports from the United States in March 1986 of $ 2.247 billion up to October 1990 of $ 4.962 billion, the cumulative increase in the rate reached 120%. Japan's imports from the world in January 1986 to $ 10.97 billion increased rapidly in March 1988 to $ 15.44 billion, the increase was 40.7%.
Be seen in the "Plaza Agreement" entered into force within six months, the yen appreciated by more than expected domestic enterprises, export enterprises in a short time to adjust production to avoid the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations, either Japan or the U.S. exports Japan's exports to the world are subject to a greater negative impact.
(2) long-term changes in Japan's total trade
However, "Plaza Agreement" the impact on Japanese exports a very short time. Since February 1986, the Japanese exports to the United States would show a steady upward trend, rising rapidly from the $ 5.09 billion in July 1986 to 77.4 billion dollars in December 1987 rose to $ 8.31 billion. In the meantime the yen has continued to appreciate, from February 1986 to ￥ 121.35 / $ 1 up to 82.15 yen / $ 1, the appreciation rate of 40.1%. From then until 1995, the yen has appreciated real exchange rate has reached 31.5%, while Japan's exports to the U.S. has continued to grow. As of March 1995, Japan's exports to the U.S. reached a peak of $ 11.89 billion.
Japan's exports to the world the same since March 1986 will be the end of the downward trend and rising rapidly, the same year in September rose to $ 19.06 billion, in December 1987 rose to $ 24.05 billion, in March 1991 rose to $ 28.92 billion, to March 1995 reached $ 42.06 billion, 10-year cumulative increase of 284.6%. This shows that in the long term, the Japanese government and businesses to take effective measures against the yen appreciation on the export sector shocks.
The dramatic decline in Japan's exports in 1995 are, when in March Japan exports 11.891 billion U.S. dollars the United States, to January 1996 fell to $ 8.12 billion, a decline of 46.4%. Until 1999 monthly exports to the United States, Japan always hovering in the $ 9 billion level. Meanwhile, Japan's exports on the world in March 1995 by the highest value of 42.06 billion U.S. dollars, respectively, slipped to January 1996 of $ 28.04 billion, and in August 1998 of 277,6 million dollars. Thus, the United States or Japan, both for the dramatic fall in exports to the world have appeared in the "Plaza Agreement" signed a decade later, at which point the sharp drop in exports is set by Japan's "bubble economy" and the subsequent recession caused. 20 In the early 1990s, the Japanese economy in a boom suddenly collapsed into up to ten years from depression. General view is that in 1985 exports to Japan appreciation of the yen had a significant negative impact, however, economic data and analysis from the situation, the appreciation of the yen actually adversely affect exports to Japan only lasted more than six months, the impact effect is very limited.
3 changes in Japan's trade competitiveness
I use Japanese net exports ratio as a measure of Japan's trade competitiveness indicators. Net exports ratio (Net Exposing Ratio, NXR) means a State against another's trade surplus accounted for the ratio of total trade between the two countries, the formula is:
NXR = X-M / X + M
This paper investigated the United States, Japan and the net export ratio NXRju ratio of net exports on the world NXRjw, the above formula, x is referenced in Japan from 1980 to 2012 the United States and Japan from 1970 to 2012 the world's monthly exports, M is the monthly import places. I refer to Yu Hong, JialinGuan and Hongwei Su net exports ratio (NXR) meaning, with the NXR to represent the United States and Japan, the impact on the severity of world trade. NXR is a value between -1 to 1, when the NXR> 0, it indicates that Japanese exports competitive, NXR more approaching a competitive advantage is more obvious; when NRX <0, indicating the lack of competitiveness of Japanese exports, NRX smaller, more significant competitive disadvantage.
(1) Japan to the United States, Japan, the ratio of net exports to the world short-term changes
1980-1986 Japan's trade surplus with the rapid growth of the United States, Japan, the ratio of U.S. net exports expanded rapidly. January 1980, Japan's share of total U.S. exports only 5% in September 1983 rose to 34.5% in December 1985 rose to 54.9% in November 1986 reached 55.1% of the highest value. Japan's trade surplus with the United States more than half of the Japan-US trade volume, became the main target of U.S. economic sanctions. Pressure by the United States, the international community generally expected appreciation of the yen formed, leading Japan to the United States and the world net export ratio declining rapidly. Since 1986, a sharp decline in Japan's trade surplus with the United States, the proportion of total trade surplus began to decline dramatically. 55.1% in 1986, respectively, in May 1988 had fallen to 32.6%, and in January 1990 to 21.5% five years fell by 70%. Visible "Plaza Agreement" after the appreciation of the yen in the short term to reverse the US-Japan trade deficit does play a role to promote Japan-US trade reorientation towards equilibrium.
Since 1970, Japan's rapidly expanding world exports, the trade surplus increased year by year, Japan is also the world's net export ratio increased year by year. 1980-1986 period this trend is particularly evident. September 1980, NXRjw only 4% in July 1983 to 12.7% in December 1985 to 22.8% in September 1986 reached 30.7%, Japan's trade surplus rose to nearly seven years, World 1/3 level . However, since 1986 to 1990, Japan's trade surplus in Japan's share of total world trade declined substantially. January 1987 decreased to 16.7% in August 1989 fell to 8.4% in October 1990 fell to 6.7%, a decline of 80% 4. Visible "Plaza Agreement" in force five years is indeed a blow to Japan's export worldwide competitiveness. (2) Japan, the United States, Japan, the ratio of net exports to the world long-term changes
Since 1991, Japan's ratio of net exports to the U.S. will be presented recovery trend. September 1991 rose to 36.4% NXRju, when the yen was ￥ 132.85 / $ 1; September 1993 NXRju rose to 38.5%, the yen exchange rate of 105.2 yen / $ 1; July 1994 NXRju reach 36.6%, the yen exchange rate of 99.8 yen / $ 1. From 1991 to 1994, the yen has appreciated 20.5%, while Japan's ratio of net exports to the U.S. has increased year by year. Thus, the "Plaza Agreement" While in the short term narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit with Japan, the long-term but can not fundamentally solve the Japan-US trade imbalance.
Since 1991, Japan's ratio of net exports on the world began to rise. February 1991 increased to 11.3% in December 1992 rose to 22.2% in December 1993 rose to 24.6 percent, while the yen during this period increased by 15.1%. Visible, the Japanese "export-oriented" economic development model adjustment requires a long and difficult process, in the short term is difficult to be effective. However, the long term, the exchange rate risk would force exporters had to raise awareness of innovation, improve management, to reduce export costs, improve production efficiency. This "cost-driven innovation exchange rate mechanism" on the one hand can hedge the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates, on the other hand will promote long-term economic development.
51due留学教育原创版权郑重声明：原创留学生代写范文源自编辑创作，未经官方许可，网站谢绝转载。对于侵权行为，未经同意的情况下，51Due有权追究法律责任。
51due为留学生提供最好的服务，亲们可以进入主页了解和获取更多paper代写范文 提供美国留学生作业代写以及paper辅导服务，详情可以咨询我们的客服QQ:800020041哟。-xz
