The impact of the brexit vote on the European Union

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的assignment代写范文- The impact of the brexit vote on the European Union，供大家参考学习，这篇论文讨论了英国脱欧公投对欧盟的影响。英国脱欧对欧盟经济发展的负面效应非常大。从经济上看，英国脱欧直接导致欧元走弱，会对欧盟经济产生负面冲击，失去英国的欧盟总体经济实力将下一个台阶。英国的离开，首先将打击欧盟内部不算发达的东欧国家的经济发展。

On June 24, after the result of the brexit referendum, the stock and currency markets around the world were violently shaken. The pound plunged by 12%, the euro plunged by 4.5%, and the standard & poor's stock index futures plunged by 5.7%, which directly triggered the circuit breaking. The stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong plunged by 7%, 4% and 5%. The a-share market was under pressure, falling 2.93 per cent at the open and closing down 1 per cent at the close. The gold, yen and dollar indexes jumped 8.8 percent, 7.4 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, sparking panic. In the short term, markets may be overreacting, but on the other hand, it is clear that the brexit vote should be a major event affecting the global economy.

Britain's vote to leave the European Union has done more harm than good to its economy. In the short term, brexit can avoid the annual payment of more than 8 billion pounds to the eu finance, reduce the insecurity brought by immigration, get rid of many binding regulations of the eu on British small and medium-sized enterprises, achieve independent policies, restore "self-respect", and protect domestic employment and welfare to a certain extent. But in the long term, the loss of eu membership means a diminished role for the eu in international economic and global affairs.

Britain has always been the world's largest foreign exchange market, the second largest bond market, the third largest stock market, its economic strength ranks the fifth, the eu's second, and a genuine economic powers in the world today, after the decline in its credit rating is sure, followed could gradually lost its role of global financial markets, the French President spoke just now, to Paris into another international financial center, Germany will immediately follow up, points out the London lost share, even after two years to take off the failed, the long negative expectations will directly hurt Britain's financial sector.

Pound continues to put in the short term will directly affect the international reserve currency status and share, take off the British will face after the eu's trade barriers, after the foreign trade dependence of more than 50%, compared to 10% of the eu exports to its, it will direct the drop-down economic growth, although the policy autonomy, but the unification of the lost nearly 500 million population and huge eu free market obviously do more harm than good, although in the short term, the British government would take a lot of "stability" measures, such as finance, foreign affairs, business, the cabinet office, such as multiple departments set up a new department of European affairs, strive to maintain economic and financial stability, But as time goes on, the negative effects will become more and more obvious. Although Cameron said in his speech to parliament yesterday that "although Britain is preparing to leave the eu, it will not abandon Europe and Britain hopes to maintain the closest economic ties with its European neighbors".

But if it does start the process of leaving the eu, it will not be up to Britain to maintain the relationship, and every negotiation with the eu will have to be agreed by all 27 members to be effective. Even if the eu were to give Britain the same treatment as Norway or Switzerland, it would still have to pay an objective contribution to the single market and lose its voice and influence.

The negative effects of brexit on the eu's economic development cannot be underestimated. From an economic point of view, the British to take off the led directly to the weaker euro, will have negative impact on the economy of the European Union, at present, the UK in the European Union is second to the German powerhouse, Britain to the European Union's contribution rate of GDP reached 17.56%, 14.5% contribution to import and export contribution 11.6%, overall economic strength loss of the European Union will be the next step, its population accounts for the proportion of the world's population will be from the current 7% to 6.1%, GDP fell to 14.6% from 17% of the world now, export quotas will be from the current 33.9% to below 30.3%, tell from the economic and trade relations, British companies have always been at the top of the global industrial supply chain, which is of great importance to the eu. The UK has always been a deficit country in its trade with the eu and a net demand country for most eu countries. Add to this the huge disparity in national power within the eu, the inequality of the rich and the poor, and the fact that some debt-ridden countries, such as Greece, will further drag down the strong countries like France and Germany, and the economic downturn may be even faster, and the euro will be further weakened as an international reserve currency. Britain's departure will first hit the economic development of the less developed eastern European countries within the eu.

More terrible is, regardless of the British can eventually take off, as long as you start to take off the program, even in the period of 2 years of negotiations, is bound to cause a chain reaction of the European Union, split off the trend, and now some developed countries are brewing within the eu to take off the referendum, such as the French support off the proportion of 41%, 34%, Germany, Italy is as high as 48%, if the economy continues to decline, increased unemployment, and then add some similar recent refugees or a terrorist attack events, finally caused the eu's complete disintegration is not impossible.

Brexit brings uncertainty to global economic development. From the economic point of view, the brexit will directly lead to the overreaction of the global financial market in the short term, the sharp decline of the pound and the euro, the further rise of the dollar and the yen, the sharp turbulence of the global stock market, the aggravation of the global risk aversion sentiment, and the sharp rise of the price of gold, silver and other financial products to avoid risks. However, nearly a week after the referendum, the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB has gradually recovered from the sharp decline, and the market has gradually recovered from the intervention of the central Banks. The international financial market will fall into a long period of observation, adjustment and game.

America's recovery will suffer. American interest rates for the first time since 2015, although its economy has rebounded but has been unstable, the federal reserve for further increases in interest rates have been hesitant, take off the now, the substantial depreciation of dollar in pounds and euros under passive appreciation, second time motivation, secondary to raise interest rates at least until after the us election again depends on the situation, therefore, this period of time for the international financial markets to reduce the influence of some uncertain factors, is conducive to stability's own economic and financial markets.

The yen was also forced to appreciate after brexit, to some extent disrupting the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Abe government. It is not conducive to the recovery of the Japanese economy, but it will strengthen the role of the Japanese yen as an international reserve to a certain extent, and the Japanese yen will continue to appreciate as a safe haven currency.

Third, the UK and eu economies will fall further. Sterling and the euro, as well as equities and bonds, are under further downward pressure in the medium to long term. Brexit, real or not, would be a lose-lose for both Britain and the European Union, whose status as an international reserve currency would be diminished. If the European debt crisis and immigration problem are not completely solved, but continue to ferment, the downward pressure on the economy in the future is bound to continue to increase. In the long run, there is also great uncertainty.

It will be a great benefit for Russia to recover from brexit. After the outbreak of the Ukraine incident, the UK was one of the fiercest countries advocating the implementation of financial sanctions against Russia. It is also the main obstacle that prevents many countries in the eu from advocating the lifting of sanctions against Russia. If sanctions last from 2014 to 2017, and oil prices plummet, Russia could lose more than $600 billion, much of it in capital outflows. At present, Austria, Hungary and other eu countries have once again released their willingness to lift sanctions against Russia. Russia may be able to use brexit and the differences within the eu to reopen the door of negotiation and consultation with the eu, which will undoubtedly benefit Russia's economic recovery. Even if the negotiations fail, the next step of developing relations with the eu will be less of a huge obstacle like the UK.

Look at the global economy, in the UK to take off after the referendum increased a lot of uncertainty, and further downward trend obviously, if the economy of China and the United States don't have big improvement this year, GDP growth would drop, for emerging countries such as India, Vietnam, also due to the stagnation of economic globalization trend reversed, even to enjoy the benefits of economic globalization. Thus, the global economic recovery will be more difficult, with the passage of time, a major adjustment of the global economic pattern or inevitable. Brexit will accelerate the reconstruction of international geostrategic pattern

International geopolitical strategy of human history, have experienced from to sea power and land power to Liu Haiquan pay equal attention to the direction of development, in August 1588, the British adowa Spain marked "Armada", means the ending of the era of human land power, sea power the beginning of the era, when Britain was called "day not fall empire", its colonies all over the world, until the end of the second world war, the global hegemony status was completely replaced by the United States and the Soviet union.

With the collapse of the Soviet union, by the beginning of the 21st century, the United States had two oceans, with NATO dominating Russia, controlling the asia-pacific and containing China. But not for long, because the United States in the Middle East in a decade-long "war on terror", declining national strength than China, leading to the so-called "asia-pacific rebalancing" strategy, the main military force on the Asia Pacific as a last resort to curb the rise of China, with the rapid development of China's economic and military, the game between China and the United States are replacing the United States a strong's dominance of the situation, and the "area" strategy is put forward also marks the era of sea power to Liu Haiquan and transformation of The Times. At this critical moment, Britain's brexit objectively accelerated the reconstruction of the international geostrategic pattern.

On November 12, 2014, under the grand strategy of "seeking common ground while reserving differences", China and the United States reached a series of consensus, agreements and joint statements on international affairs through cooperation. But not long after that, the us strategy towards China shifted to the "asia-pacific rebalancing" strategy aimed at containing China. In order to avoid falling into the "thucydides trap", China and the us have put forward the view of "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation". Despite its verbal recognition, the United States is full of hostility in its essence, so it launches the strategy of comprehensively containing China geopolitically, and encircles China multiple times through military coercion, political alienation, diplomatic isolation and legal manipulation. The essence of this is that under the "thucydides trap" thinking, China is not confident about the change of its international status, and feels deeply uneasy when facing the rapid rise of China's strength in all aspects, and China is approaching or even about to surpass China economically. However, the formation of the global geopolitical strategy pattern of China and the United States is the result of decades of political and economic development of both sides, it is not to the objective existence of man's will, the next is a "win-win" or "stop confrontation" also has been put on the table, on July 12, the court in the Hague as a paper called "arbitration" may even be a showdown at once.

Britain to take off the weakened America borrow Britain from the political and economic control of the European Union, Britain decline in global economic strategy, in the United States due to British and American natural "brother", in order to ensure its take off after the international status, will inevitably take dependence on the United States in the political, military, economic managed to balance strategy of actively developing relations with China, but once you open rivalry between China and the United States, Britain is bound to follow the United States, at least in diplomatic and political will.

Off after Europe, the United States of the eu's grip is abate, Europe and the United States also has a lot of countries to the United States international hegemony behavior, can be expected to take off after the United States through enhancing NATO to regain control of the Europe, therefore, NATO against Russia in future will constantly have a "thing", so, only the United States to achieve this can firmly control the European, and bullying the dual purpose of Russia.

Russia is the biggest winner from brexit. In the future, Russia will try to lift sanctions at an early date by strengthening its relations with the eu, aggravating its internal differences and dividing countries. It is conceivable that Russia and the us will have a long-term game over the eastward expansion of NATO and whether to lift sanctions, while the UK may find it easy to make light of the situation. However, in order to seek a balance between China and the United States after brexit, the European Union may gradually lift the arms embargo against China, because France and Spain supported lifting the embargo against China in the European Union before, but the United States was rejected by the United Kingdom in the European Union due to its intervention in the United Kingdom. Now brexit at least provides an opportunity for both sides to strengthen military trade cooperation.

Take off after the British, in the north, the United States will be on a more positive attitude towards Russia action handling NATO's eastward expansion, military bullying compression Russia's strategic space, with a military bound to the eu continue to use the method of economic sanctions is blunt knife to cut meat dismembering Russia, so the northern Russia and America at least could form a strategic balance of power, the United States will be the main energy and strength on the Asia Pacific, its strategy is applied to China economic cooperation, military containment, political isolation, legally accused methods continue to push China to strategic blind Angle. Since many politicians and military personnel in the United States do not know or believe China's military strength, the United States must test China's tactical CARDS by taking advantage of the South China sea arbitration issue, thus forming a new cold war with China. At this point, Britain will be of more political, diplomatic and moral value to both China and the United States, while its geopolitical and strategic significance will be less significant.

We should grasp the trend, be prepared with both hands and think from the bottom line, and strive to reconstruct the new order of international relations in a peaceful way. British Europe will be a long process, can succeed, now it is hard to say, for geopolitical strategy, the British Europe against China may not, as long as China passing the economy will firmly grasp, to the point of mutual integration and common development, that even when strategic showdown between China and the United States, they will also keep the neutral on the action, plus Russia in the north to NATO to contain, at this point, China also can rely on the geographical advantages of the south China sea, concentrate on a scrap with the United States.

As long as China's domestic political stability and economic development remain unchanged, the rise of China will be an inevitable trend in the development of international affairs. No one can stop it, and brexit will accelerate the process. Rise but the road is not royal road to learning, China must grasp the general trend, hedging, had better use peaceful methods to defend the national interests, of course, we have to prepare for the worst in the military, diplomatic maneuver to whole, politically united front, for all countries, can be for strengthening economic win-win cooperation and strive to peacefully reconstructing new international order.

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