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Quantitative easing in the United States

2019-04-20 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Essay范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- Quantitative easing in the United States,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国的量化宽松政策。量化宽松政策是非常规性货币政策工具,旨在为市场注入流动性,增加市场中的流通货币数量,刺激消费。美国一共出台了四轮量化宽松政策,这在一定程度上缓解了美国失业率高、贸易逆差高以及负债数额大的问题,促进了美国经济的发展。但美国作为全球最主要的经济体,其实行量化宽松政策同时也对其他国家的经济造成了威胁。

Quantitative easing,美国量化宽松政策,essay代写,作业代写,代写

Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy tool designed to inject liquidity into the market, increase the amount of money in circulation and stimulate consumption. In today's globalized economy, quantitative easing in the United States is bound to have a profound impact on other countries. This paper expounds the purpose of the quantitative easing policy of the United States and its impact on the economy of the United States, China and the global economy through theoretical discussion and data analysis.

The subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 originated in the United States, then swept the world, and gradually evolved into a global financial crisis. The so-called subprime crisis refers to the financial storm caused by the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage institutions, forced closure of investment funds, and violent turbulence of the stock market. After the subprime crisis, not only the financial market suffered a comprehensive blow, liquidity appeared serious shortage, the American economy was also seriously affected. Subsequently, tAmerican government launched a comprehensive economic stimulus plan in 2009. After several interest rate cuts, the federal reserve reduced the interest rate to near zero and kept it unchanged. In addition, the federal reserve has issued four rounds of quantitative easing policies. On this basis, this paper first discusses the purpose of quantitative analysis in the United States.

U.S. GDP fell 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to data released by the Commerce Department. Full employment is one of the macroeconomic goals of the government under the background of open economy. Only with full employment can social resources be effectively allocated, economic development be promoted and social stability be achieved. After the subprime crisis, the United States cut interest rates many times, reducing the interest rate to nearly zero level. On this basis, the United States adopted the quantitative easing policy to stimulate the labor market and reduce the unemployment rate.

America has a long history of trade deficit problems. Since the first trade deficit in 1971, the trade deficit has become increasingly large and has become the largest trade deficit country in the world. In 2008, the U.S. trade deficit hit $728.7 billion. In this case, one of the purposes of the quantitative easing policy adopted by the United States is to promote exports and reduce the trade deficit through this policy.

The United States is currently the world's largest debtor country, and the high budget deficit of the U.S. federal government has become an urgent problem for the United States to solve. After the financial crisis, the new debt of the United States increased. In 2008 and 2009, the debt ceiling of the United States was $10.61 trillion and $12.10 trillion respectively, accounting for 70% and 84.1 percent of G, D and P respectively. However, high debt will bring about increased fiscal uncertainty and lack of effectiveness of spending cuts, etc. Adopting quantitative easing policy can depreciate the us dollar and thus dilute high debt.

Quantitative easing mainly refers to the intervention method by which the central bank, after implementing the policy of zero interest rate or near-zero interest rate, increases the base money supply and injects a large amount of liquidity into the market by purchasing Treasury bonds and other medium and long-term bonds to encourage spending and borrowing. With the continuous development of the process of global economic integration, the world economy is becoming more and more interdependent, and the influence between countries is also deepening. The quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the United States not only affects the American economy, but also the spillover effect will affect other countries and then spread to the world.

Theoretical analysis: quantitative easing increases the supply of basic money in the United States. It can be seen from the monetary policy transmission mechanism of Keynes that the increase of money supply leads to the decrease of interest rate and the increase of investment, and the increase of expenditure and income through the multiplier effect.

The United States is a developed country with a fully floating exchange rate and fully flowing capital. According to mundell-fleming model, under the floating exchange rate system, when the capital is fully flowing, monetary expansion will increase the income and depreciate the currency. A weaker dollar would boost exports of American goods.

In general, the global financial system has not existed since March 1973 and has been replaced by the Jamaican monetary system. The exchange rate system of Jamaica currency body is floating exchange rate dollar standard system substantially. The international reserve currency system, supplemented by sterling, Japanese yen, euro and Special Drawing Rights, has shifted from a world dominated by the us dollar to a multi-currency system dominated by the us dollar. But the dollar is still the dominant currency, the most important international means of payment, the most important international store of value. In a diversified international reserve structure, reserve currency issuing countries still enjoy various benefits such as seigniorage. An increase in the supply of monetary base in the United States would undoubtedly raise a large amount of seigniorage for the United States.

The quantitative easing in the United States aggravates China's inflation mainly through the following ways: first, due to the improvement of China's opening degree, the expansionary monetary policy adopted by the United States will lead to a large number of foreign hot money flowing into China and aggravate the bubble of China's capital market. This kind of speculative short-term investment behavior leads to the increase of bank loans, that is, the increase of money supply, and then leads to inflation, due to the short capital turnover period and the apparent safety. Second, quantitative easing will bring imported inflation to China. Due to the increase in the supply of us dollars, the price of oil and raw materials in the international market priced in us dollars will increase, leading to the increase in the import price of these basic products in China, which will lead to the rise in domestic prices and eventually lead to cost-push inflation. As shown in figure 2, since the fourth quarter of 2009, the year-on-year increase of CPI in China has been positive, reflecting the current situation of inflation in China.

Quantitative easing would reduce China's trade surplus with the us. Theoretically, the effect of America's expansionary monetary policy on China's foreign trade is influenced by the effect of expenditure conversion and absorption. The effect of expenditure conversion is that the increase of China's import leads to the decrease of China's domestic output. The absorption effect is reflected in the increase of American output, which will also increase the demand for Chinese imports. Since China's current import price demand elasticity is very small, very close to zero, and the export elasticity is less than 1, so the sum of the import and export demand elasticity coefficient is less than 1, the RMB appreciation will not have a restraining effect on exports. Therefore, in general, the absorption effect is relatively small. The foreign trade of the United States with China is mainly due to the policy of expenditure conversion, that is, the increase of the export of the United States to China leads to the decrease of the trade surplus between China and the United States. As can be seen from figure 3, after the implementation of each round of quantitative easing policy in the United States, such as November 2008, November 2010, September 2012 and December 2012, the export volume of China would decrease first and then increase. Thus, quantitative easing in the United States has little impact on China's exports. Rising import values have reduced China's trade surplus with the United States.

First, the implementation of quantitative easing policy in the United States has shrunk China's foreign exchange reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves are dominated by the us dollar, while quantitative easing devalues the us dollar, which further leads to the shrinkage of China's foreign exchange. Secondly, China's foreign exchange control becomes more difficult. Quantitative easing in the United States has led to the increase in the degree of inflation in China and the increase in the pressure of RMB appreciation. In order to maintain the advantage of China's export trade and maintain the value of foreign exchange reserves, we have to adopt a loose monetary policy to increase the money supply, but at the same time, it also brings about the problem of increasing the difficulty of foreign exchange control.

The macroeconomics model under the open economy proposes that the expansionary monetary policy of a country will lead to the general decline of the world interest rate. A fall in interest rates would boost investment and consumption, boosting the global economy.

In the same way that the quantitative easing policy of the United States increases the inflationary pressure in China, the quantitative easing policy of the United States will increase the global inflationary pressure. The United States increases the supply of base money by purchasing real estate-related debt and Treasury bonds, which leads to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and then leads to the increase of world commodity prices marked by the U.S. dollar, and then leads to the increase of global inflationary pressure. At the same time, other countries have adopted various kinds of loose monetary policies to curb the appreciation of their currencies. The bank of Japan launched 8 billion yen of QE and so on. These measures add to global inflationary pressures.

At present, the world's central Banks still choose the dollar as the main option for foreign exchange reserves. America's efforts to dilute high debt by devaluing the dollar through quantitative easing have come at the cost of sharply reducing the value of the dollar's foreign-exchange reserves.

Through the above analysis, we can conclude that the four rounds of quantitative easing policy in the United States has alleviated the problems of high unemployment rate, high trade deficit and large amount of debt in the United States to some extent, and promoted the development of the American economy. However, as the world's largest economy and the world's largest foreign exchange reserve, the United States' quantitative easing policy also poses a threat to other countries' economies.

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