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The us sovereign credit downgrade

2019-03-01 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Essay范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- The us sovereign credit downgrade,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国主权的信用降级。继2011年下调美国主权信用评级后,国际评级机构标准普尔8日又将美国贷款抵押融资公司房利美和房地美的评级由AAA下调至AA+,进一步加剧了全球市场的信心危机,新兴市场受到波及在所难免。由于美国经济前景黯淡、信用评级遭降,新兴市场股市近日几乎全线大跌。同时,新兴市场经济前景受到拖累,出口或将遭到冲击,面临贸易保护主义风险。

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Following the downgrade of the us sovereign credit rating on August 5, 2011, the international rating agency standard & poor's downgraded the rating of the us mortgage finance companies fannie mae and Freddie MAC from AAA to AA+ on August 8, 2011, which further aggravated the crisis of confidence in global markets and inevitably affected emerging markets. Emerging market stocks have tumbled almost across the board in recent days as the outlook for the us economy darkened and its credit rating was downgraded. At the same time, the economic outlook of emerging markets has been dragged down, or exports will be hit, facing the risk of trade protectionism. The RMB will continue to appreciate passively, dollar assets will continue to shrink, and the safety factor of us treasuries will be reduced.

The standard & poor's (s&p) said Monday it will downgrade the United States' AAA long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ and maintain a "negative" outlook. Coupled with the ongoing European debt crisis, emerging market stocks started the week with a broad sell-off. Emerging economies' growth prospects have been dragged down by growing concerns about the risk of a "double dip" in the global economy, following a string of unfavourable economic data.

Middle eastern stocks, which opened the weekend, were the first to take a hit. Saudi Arabia's stock market, the only one in the Middle East to start a week of trading on Saturday, plunged 5.5 percent on the day. Other middle eastern markets mostly opened on Sunday, with markets across the region falling on the negative news. Among them, the Israeli stock market 7 days plummeted 6.99%. The last time Israel's stock market tanked was when lehman brothers collapsed in 2008. Egypt's stock market also fell sharply on the day, with the benchmark EGX30 index falling 4.17 per cent to 4,798.89, its lowest level in two years. By the end of the day, Egypt's stock market had lost 12.1 billion pounds.

Asian and Pacific stocks were hit hard by the downgrade of the us sovereign credit rating and the overnight plunge in us and European stock markets. China's mainland stock markets plunged on Wednesday, with Shanghai and shenzhen a-shares falling more than 3 percent. The Shanghai composite index fell below 2,500 points, its biggest close of the year at 3.79 per cent. The shenzhen component index closed down 3.33 percent. The Shanghai and shenzhen b-share indices tumbled, with the Shanghai b-share index falling more than 6 per cent and the shenzhen b-share index closing down 5.64 per cent. Seoul's kospi and the nasdaq both plunged as much as 7.28 per cent and 10.41 per cent, respectively, during the session, forcing the south Korean stock exchange to halt trading for five and 20 minutes respectively. Singapore's straits times index closed down 3.7 per cent on the day, while India's sensex 30 index in mumbai and Indonesia's Jakarta composite both fell 1.82 per cent. On the morning of September 9, the stock market of asia-pacific emerging markets continued to drop sharply. The south Korean composite index plunged after opening, losing 1800 points. South Korea's kospi index was also suspended after plunging more than 5 percent, losing 450 points.

Several research firms have lowered their forecasts for global growth, including in emerging markets, taking into account new factors affecting world growth. Goldman sachs recently cut global growth to 4.0 per cent in 2011 from 4.1 per cent a year earlier, while the us, Japan and Europe were both downgraded for the next two years. Notably, the bric GDP forecasts, which have been bullish, have also been revised down: from 7.9 per cent growth in 2011 to 7.7 per cent, and from 7.9 per cent in 2012. The oecd released its composite leading economic index for June on Tuesday. Data show that economic activity in the world's major economies, including the seven most developed countries and the brics, will continue to weaken in the near term. On a country-by-country basis, the U.S. and Russian economies have passed an inflection point and are about to slow. Other developed countries, as well as major developing countries including China, Brazil and India, have entered a period of low growth.

As for the risks ahead, Argentine President cristina fernandez DE kirchner and Brazilian finance minister guido mantega recently called on Latin American countries to strengthen regional unity, speed up the integration process, make preparations for a new round of crisis as soon as possible, and prevent developed countries from transferring the consequences of the crisis to emerging markets through financial turmoil.

A downgrade of the us credit rating, the world's largest import market, would weaken the dollar and dim the outlook for the us economy, which is set to hurt growth in emerging markets, where exports are the main driver. Emerging market exports will face continued weakness in external demand, exchange rate appreciation, and increasing international trade frictions.

First, the weak us economy and the passive appreciation of emerging economies' currencies will put emerging market countries at a greater disadvantage in exporting to the us. Jun ma, chief economist for greater China at deutsche bank, pointed out recently that, according to historical data, every 1 percentage point cut in us and European economic growth rate will reduce China's export growth rate by 7 percentage points, and China's GDP growth rate will also be cut by 1 percentage point. The United States is China's second largest export market. In 2010, China's exports to the United States reached $283.3 billion, equivalent to 4.6% of China's GDP that year. If us demand weakens, the impact on Chinese exports will be significant. In addition, the U.S. is India's third largest export market for goods, with $19.53 billion in 2010. The downgrade of the us credit rating will have a negative impact on India's exports, the federation of Indian export organizations said Thursday. Outside the IT sector, clothing, handicrafts, leather and jewellery will be hardest hit. At the same time, the United States is Mexico's largest export market, Brazil, South Africa's third largest export market.

This shows the importance of the us market to emerging economies. The depreciation of the dollar against emerging market currencies is bound to greatly affect the export competitiveness of emerging economies. In addition, in order to fulfill debt ceiling agreement, the U.S. government has pledged to cut the deficit in excess of $2 trillion over the next ten years, it will inevitably by raising taxes and reduce subsidies, as a result, further reduce the disposable income of people, as is the personal consumption of the GDP will be reined in, and emerging market exports to the United States.

Second, the risk of global protectionism may rise. Since last week, affected by the rising debt risk of Italy and Spain, the European debt crisis has escalated, and global stock markets have generally plunged. Us sovereign credit rating was downgraded again, global capital market added insult to injury, global stock market ushered in a new round of slump. The rise and fall of the capital market reflects the confidence of the market. Once the confidence is lost, the economic outlook is bound to be worrying. In order to protect their economies and maintain market confidence, countries will inevitably strive to promote employment, so it is inevitable that measures will be taken to over-protect their industries. The "buy American" provisions of the economic stimulus package passed by congress in February 2009 are the best footnote to the protection of trade in the depths of the crisis. Argentinian economist emilio ocampo said the financial market turmoil is likely to lead governments to take trade protection and other measures to stabilize their economies, thus triggering a new round of trade war.

The United States has maintained its top-notch sovereign credit rating, making U.S. government debt the safest asset for investors around the world. Now the sovereign credit rating of the United States has been downgraded, indicating that the safety of us Treasury bonds has been reduced, indicating that the solvency of the us economy has been questioned. The us dollar is the world's main reserve currency, accounting for about 60% of the global reserves, and its value directly determines the international reserve value of central Banks. The downgrade of the us sovereign credit rating at the same time shakes the international reserve status of the us dollar, which is bound to cause asset shrinkage of the holder countries.

Since the financial crisis, the currencies of emerging economies have appreciated against the dollar to varying degrees. Brazil's currency, the real, has appreciated more than 40% since 2009, putting pressure on the country's exports and industrial production. According to the latest data from the China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of the RMB against the us dollar was at 6.4305 on August 8 this year, up more than 100 basis points from the previous trading day. The downgrade of the us sovereign credit rating will certainly contribute to the depreciation of the us dollar and lead to the continued passive appreciation of emerging market currencies. Except for Japan, the vast majority of the top ten countries and regions in the world are emerging economies, including China, Russia, Brazil and India. A weaker dollar inevitably shrinks their foreign exchange reserves.

In this context, the potential downgrade of the U.S. credit rating will have a greater impact on countries and regions that hold the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated U.S. debt as major foreign reserves. As of may, emerging economies accounted for more than half of the top 10 holders of U.S. debt, according to Treasury Department statistics. Mainland China topped the list with $1.16 trillion, accounting for a quarter of the total U.S. national debt. Emerging economies hold more than half of the total. According to the securities industry and financial markets association estimates that the downgrade could make Treasury yields rose 0.7% in the long term, will increase by about $100 billion for the us public debt, the cost of financing for main creditor countries such as China and Japan, the U.S. debt value loss and fall in the dollar exchange rate losses are difficult to calculate.

In the first trading day after standard & poor's cut the nation's long-term sovereign credit rating, long-term U.S. bonds were the most affected. The yield on the 30-year us Treasury note rose 23 basis points in two trading sessions in Asian trading on Tuesday, the biggest rise in the yield since July 2009.

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