The impact of venezuela's break with the United States on global oil markets

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文- The impact of venezuela's break with the United States on global oil markets，供大家参考学习，这篇论文讨论了委内瑞拉与美国断交对全球原油市场的影响。今年1月份，OPEC轮值主席国委内瑞拉同世界最大原油生产国美国断交，引发南美局势混乱的同时，对全球原油市场可能产生较大影响。美国对委内瑞拉的制裁将直接影响委内瑞拉的原油出口，但当前下跌的油价环境可能是特朗普政府尚未做出正式制裁的重要缓冲，禁止向委内瑞拉出售其加工重质油所必须的稀释剂很可能是美国即将采取制裁的关键一步。

Venezuela, which holds the rotating presidency of the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), recently severed ties with the United States, the world's largest producer of crude oil. Analyze the fundamentals of the Venezuelan oil market, especially the energy trade between venezuela and the United States; In the short term, medium term and long term, this paper analyzes the possible impact of the "Venezuelan break" on the international crude oil market. In view of the current situation of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises in China, this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and Suggestions from the aspects of high-quality development of enterprises, national energy security and overseas investment risk.

On January 23, 2019, venezuela's opposition party launched a massive demonstrations in the capital of Caracas, the opposition leader, melon, chairman of the Venezuelan parliament declared more for the country's "interim President", then the President of the United States and Latin American nations leaders said trump acknowledges that caused strong dissatisfaction with the incumbent President nicolas maduro, announced that broke off diplomatic relations with the United States. On January 28th America said it would freeze the assets of venezuela's state oil company until Mr Maduro gave them to Mr Guaydo, his self-proclaimed President. The sanctions include a freeze on Citgo Petroleum, a us-based refiner owned by PDVSA, venezuela's state oil company. Citgo Petroleum is controlled by PDVSA and is PDVSA's most important source of profit. Venezuela, which holds the rotating presidency of OPEC, has cut ties with the United States, the world's largest producer of crude oil, triggering turmoil in South America and having a big impact on global oil markets.

According to statistics released by the EIA, venezuela's proven oil reserves exceed 300 billion barrels, ranking first in the world, but most of the country's crude oil reserves are in the heavy oil belt. In recent years, the unstable political and economic situation in China has led to the decline of its crude oil production year by year. Crude oil production has been in continuous decline since the fourth quarter of 2015, and its current output is only about 1.2 million barrels per day, only half of the peak. The decline of production has also led to the decline of export volume.

The United States has long been the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude, exporting more than 40 percent of its output to the United States. But us imports of Venezuelan crude have fallen sharply over the past decade. The U.S. imported about 514,000 BPD of Venezuelan crude and petroleum products in 2018, compared with 1.2 million BPD in 2008, according to the EIA. Still, venezuela is now the fourth-largest supplier of crude to the United States, behind Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. Most of venezuela's exports go to refineries along the gulf coast, where heavy oil still accounts for about 25% of imports, although many companies have gradually reduced imports over the past two years. There are few alternatives to venezuela's heavy oil globally.

In addition, venezuela holds the rotating presidency of OPEC in 2019, and if the severing of diplomatic ties continues, OPEC will have to continue to face sanctions from the United States on top of the ban on oil production and export cartels act. This shows that oil prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in 2019 under the influence of the severing of ties between venezuela and the United States.

As two of the world's most important oil producers, the upheaval in venezuela's relationship with the United States is having an obvious impact on the international oil market. In the short term, the us sanctions against venezuela will directly affect venezuela's oil exports, but the current environment of falling oil prices may be a trump government important buffer hasn't been a formal sanctions, it is forbidden to venezuela to sell its processing heavy oil must be thinner, is likely to be the key step of sanctions in the United States. In the medium term, if the U.S. doesn't import Venezuelan crude, it will need to see if venezuela can find new buyers or ramp up exports to China and India (the only other countries capable of processing Venezuelan heavy crude) to keep overall exports intact. In the long run, need to pay attention to the exemption of several oil service companies in venezuela would continue, the us government gave the upstream firms, including baker hughes, immunity, before July 27, 2019, the company can continue to cooperation, venezuela's state oil company and its branches, but after the exemption expire if the U.S. government to ban the company continue to cooperate with the company, the risk of venezuela's oil production is falling faster. Overall, there is no risk of a surge in international oil prices. On the one hand, Venezuelan crude oil production is currently only about 1.2 million barrels per day, with limited supply impact on the oil market. On the other hand, other factors affecting the oil market are more significant, such as the expected slowdown in the global economy, the future of trade frictions between China and the United States, and joint production cuts by OPEC+ member countries. In contrast, the impact of the "Venezuelan break" is not enough to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices. But it is worth noting that continuing tensions between venezuela and the us will fuel global concerns about a decline in the supply of heavy sour crude, including rising prices for us Mars, Mexico's Maya and Canada's WCS, while geopolitical risks continue to underpin bullish sentiment in the oil market.

In terms of the global energy landscape, Venezuelan oil exports are not expected to decline significantly, with relatively limited impact on the global oil market, as long as the U.S. doesn't take further sanctions to restrict imports of Venezuelan crude. But the bigger worry now is whether venezuela's small rebellion will escalate into a nationwide rebellion. Here's a scenario analysis of the impact of future political developments on the oil market.

To effectively control the current local unrest, American sanctions against the ground, then stop importing Venezuelan crude oil: overall impact on the pattern of global demand and supply is limited, but as a result of future oil production growth is an important source of America's shale oil, shale oil belongs to low sulfur light crude oil and the United States, production is the main heavy crude oil in venezuela. There are differences in oil products between new production and decayed production, and the imbalance between supply and demand will significantly affect the difference between heavy and light oil prices in the bay area of the United States.

President nicolas maduro is under pressure to step down and make a smooth transition to a new government: the United States will not consider further sanctions against venezuela. The suspension of diplomatic relations between venezuela and the United States is over.

Cut off diplomatic relations of "beauty" upgrade for the riots, and spread to crude oil infrastructure: by Venezuelan crude output will affect and foreclosures, corresponding to reduce crude oil supply, influence to the global oil market supply and demand is not very obvious, but geopolitical risks have risen sharply, to international oil prices at a significant geopolitical premium, international oil prices will get strong support and boost, large probability or oil prices will rise.

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