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北美作业代写:The economic impact of an ageing population

2018-03-29 来源: 51due教员组 类别: Paper范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的paper代写范文- The economic impact of an ageing population,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了人口老龄化的经济影响。由于上个世纪70年代的计划生育政策,使得如今生育率持续下降,未来老龄年人口比重会持续增长。而人口老龄化会导致整个社会的人均消费率上升,影响到整个社会的消费结构。而且人口老龄化意味着劳动力数量的下降,鉴于劳动力时重要的生产要素,劳动力水平的下降必然会对整体经济增长造成负面影响。

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Due to the one-child policy since the 1970s, China's fertility rate has continued to decline. By 2014, China's fertility rate was only 12.7 per thousand, almost a third of that in 1970. At the same time, since the 1970s, China's mortality rate has been around 7‰, so the population growth rate of our country has been declining, and the aging of human resources has been increasing.

Due to the aging population is almost not to participate in social production, supply almost all its consumer products produced by young people, in order to reflect the burden of population production, and the elderly dependency ratio is often used in the study of economics, namely the elderly population proportion of total working population to measure the aging degree of a society.

Figure 1 shows the change trend of the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in China and the elderly dependency ratio between 1997 and 2015. By the figure shows that since 1997, except for individual years fell, elderly dependency ratio has been rising in our country, and the index of 65 years of age or older population is rising year by year, has never seen falling. Not only that, but as you can see by the picture, our country in recent years the elderly dependency ratio and the proportion of people aged 65 growth rate increased, obviously, will be a greater proportion of the population aging in our country in future. So what are the economic implications of the growth of the elderly population?

First of all, an aging population will lead to an increase in the per capita consumption rate of the whole society. Based on life cycle hypothesis, rational consumers want to lifetime income uniform distribution to the various periods of life, so choose in midlife savings, in old age consumption, therefore the individual's propensity to consume will as the rise and rise of the age, then as a social elderly population increase, the overall social consumption rate will rise.

Secondly, the aging of population will affect the consumption structure of the whole society. When a society has entered the phase of ageing, due to the characteristics of the elderly pension and health care demand will rise sharply, for example, Japan's aging society, the consumption demand of hearing aid rose sharply. In addition, as compared with the young, the old is not sensitive to more innovative products, so when the consumption of the whole society main body from the young to the old, the social overall consumption preference presents certain curing, for example, relative aging is more serious in China and the United States, Europe, Japan had significantly lower demand for smart phones.

Due to the impact of the aging population on the consumption structure, the production of the whole society will adapt to the change of consumption demand, so the industrial structure will change with it. Due to the corresponding increase in demand, the industrial structure of the aging society will gradually towards pension products, medical products and related services, such as a wheelchair, hearing AIDS, such as medicine, nursing homes, domestic service industry will gradually increase the proportion of the; The same, because the elderly are less likely to accept new things, so the emerging industry development is not easy, such as Japan and s in the last century, more young population, are more likely to accept new things, so the industry and the rapid development of electronic products; In the 21st century, although the level of science and technology of the electronic products are still in the world leading position, but because of the elderly tend to use the old mobile phone, so demand for smartphones is less, so Japan's smartphone industry development lags behind China and South Korea.

An increase in the average life expectancy means more time to get pension insurance; Older people are not only more likely to have more people to receive pension insurance, but also fewer people to pay for it. It is clear that the ageing of the population will have a certain impact on the pension system, since there are fewer sources of pension benefits, more spending and longer spending time. The most obvious impact is that pension insurance may not be able to make ends meet. According to the world bank's estimate, there may be negative growth in pension premiums in many European countries around 2030. Because older people are less physically fit than younger people, older people are more likely to use health insurance. Therefore, not only the endowment insurance, the aging population will also impact the endowment insurance.

After entering the aging stage, the government has to support the relevant industries through fiscal means, due to insufficient pension and medical supply, and the demand cannot be satisfied. On the other hand, because of the aging population, the welfare expenditure of the government is increased, for example, the welfare expenditure for the elderly in the United States is about 5% of GDP, while Japan accounts for about 6%. As a result, an ageing population will lead to a rise in government spending, which will make the government's budget even tighter.

An ageing population means that the decline in labor force, in view of the important factors of production in labor, a decrease in the level of labor force will inevitably have a negative impact on overall economic growth, especially for developing countries with less capital stock, if there is an aging, it is difficult to use capital to replacement of labor force, thus inhibiting the development of economy. For developed countries, thanks to advanced production technology and rich capital, so you can use the alternative strategies to reduce labor input increase capital investment, so the aging of population have little impact on its economic development. Obviously, for China, the aging of the population means the disappearance of the demographic dividend, which will undoubtedly impact the development of China's economy in the future.

Due to the current low birth rate and death rate, China's aging society is almost inevitable, so China will have to face the impact of aging. Based on the above analysis, the population aging will bring about various impacts on economic development, so how should we deal with these shocks?

Further liberalisation of the family planning policy, should be encouraged to birth, is the main reason causing the aging of the population in our society appeared the trend of "country", in order to fundamentally solve the problem of aging population, should first solve the problem of "country". According to the experience of developed countries, once the "country" trend form it will be difficult to reverse, so China should timely correcting past the family planning policy, encourage fertility fundamentally solve the problem of aging population.

Guide the pension and health care industry, as a result of China's elderly population has reached more than one hundred million, and the endowment industry development in our country is obviously lagging behind, so our country faced with the huge pension industry lack of supply, in order to satisfy the needs of the elderly consumer, should encourage the development of pension industry.

Actively guide the relevant insurance benefits to make reasonable investment. Huge amount of insurance compensation should be used for the reasonable and effective safety investment, and investment by professionals, at the same time should set up an effective regulatory system, used in relevant insurance regulation.

Actively developing high technology industry, focus on developing capital-intensive industries, improve the level of automation and the development of various industry, get rid of the dependence on labor factors of production, thereby reducing the future population aging on the impact of economic growth.

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