Indonesian Mass Conflict--论文代写范文精选  

社会管理者可能会参与升级，对于血腥和破坏性的暴力，而不仅仅是一个问题。原因有很多方面,如社会和经济困难,社会集群和差距等,以及更多的社会冲突的根源。下面的paper代写范文进行论述。

Abstract 
  The paper statistically observed the recorded data of the series of social clashes and violence in Ambon, Indonesia in the period of social conflict between 1999‐2004. The scaling laws are revealed and the power‐law fitting procedures and analysis are conducted. The results also reviewed some findings in wars among countries in the worlds now well known as Richardson’s Law. The paper also discussed the plausible explanations in the sense of possible underlying process of the famous self‐organized criticality by reviewing the classic forest fire model. Some further sociological explorations in the sense of computational and agent‐based model approaches are also conjectured.   Keywords: social clashes, social conflict and violence, power law distribution, Richardson’s Law, self‐organized criticality.

 On Mass Conflict   
  By the years after the fall of the New Order regime in the period of social transformation to the politically reformed era, Indonesia has witnessed many civil wars among its people respect to various issues driven them (religious or ethnic ones) and broad impacts to the national strength; apparently with distinctive numbers of casualties and severances must be paid (Sihbudi, et. al., 2001).    Nonetheless, practically speaking, the events of social conflict or civil violence are never too easy to analyze since any social movements at the occurrences of the conflicts were comprised by great deal of mixed and twisted issues and relevancies. Social mobilizations could be brought in to its highest escalation – turning out to be bloody and disruptive massive violence – not by solely one issue. The motives can be derived from a great deal of aspects, e.g.: social and economic hardships, social clusters and gaps, the lack of widely accepted sovereign government or political regime, and a lot more roots of the social conflict (cf. Epstein, et. al., 2001). Thus, the complexity of its nature makes the conflict resolution is never an easy task (cf. Woods, 2003).   

  However, generally speaking, civil violence is mostly related to the mass mobility regarding to certain collective identities among social actors (cf. Lustick, 2000 & Srbljinovic, et. al, 2003). This fact is quite obvious in some cases of mass violence in Indonesia and some other countries prone to conflict. This brings to the most conventional, yet powerful conflict resolution is by bridging the communications and continuously interactions between the conflicting sides and the role of legitimate each side’s leaders is somehow important in order to maintain peace. Previously, we have tried to see the possible structure of the massive conflict by analytically laid the model in the occasions of mass mobility (Situngkir, 2003). 

Here, we would like to present a general approach that could possibly offer alternative explanations and understandings to the social conflict by observing some statistical properties of the empirical data we collected on Indonesian massive civil violence.   One of the biggest and severe massive civil violence was occurred in Ambon, Maluku1 . At this particular case, the social mobilizations were basically recognized to be driven by the religious issue between those who were Christians and Muslims. This was one of the longest and most sophisticated civil conflict occurred in the country while in return sacrificed most human souls as it appeared to be one of the broadest social conflict and massive violence geographically.

 On Power Law in the Mass 
  Conflict’s Casualties Many analyses have been delivered in order to explain the massive conflict and civil violence and the motive of the paper is to bring a slightly different approach to the empirical data of the conflict while modestly trying to build an alternative possible explanations. Obviously, one important step to prevent more severances in conflict and violence is by understanding some properties of the conflict, be it from macro‐views or the micro‐states of social actors emerging the observable properties of the social system. This is what we want to present in the paper.   

  One of the interesting feature of the quantitative analysis on social conflict and wars – yet frequently overlooked and not frequently cited – were once introduced by English physicist and meteorologist, Lewis F. Richardson (1948). He showed that the sizes of war casualties in the world were following the simple multiplicative process, known as the power law. Richardson’s calculations depicted that for each ten‐fold increase in severity, the frequency decreased by somewhat less than a factor of three. An interesting and detailed quantitative approach was thus conducted by Cederman (2003) to see more theoretical implications of the revealed fact. This is an interesting fact for in some other cases, the power law has also been discussed to be present in a lot of other scientific domains and observations (cf. Situngkir, 2003 or the detail with various data in Newmann, 2005).  

  Like wars in the world, the most frequent facts to be observed in a massive conflict and civil wars are the death tolls. It is valid to simply said that the greater the casualties the greater the size of the civil war. Of course, the geographically impact of the conflict can also be seen as a measurement to the size of the war. Apparently, this is showed in figure [3]. It depicted the scaling properties of the number of killings by logarithmically measure the radius from the Ambon city to the places where the impact has taken other (and possibly bigger) casualties. This fact is interesting as one of the discussions in the following section later on the paper. Regarding to the figure [3], it is important to note that the displayed data points of each figure represent the averages over non‐overlapping interval bin on the rank variable (x‐axis) that is centered at the showing points. Here, the size of each bin is changing on every step in such a way to have the constant value in the logarithmic scale. The aim is of course to smooth the persisting fluctuations in the data in order to ease seeing the emerging pattern.

 Closing Remarks   
  We show the scaling properties in the empirical data of social conflict occurred in Indonesia, i.e.: series of social clashes in Maluku, Ambon that was probably one of the most frightening social circumstances recently in the country. We also fit the distribution of the sizes of the conflict measured by the numbers of the casualties in the recorded series of the massive contacts between 1999 until 2004. The discussion has brought us to observe some interesting statistical features depicted from the fitting process. As the power law distribution reminds us to the classical work known today as Richardson’s Law, we review the plausibility to see the social clashes in the terms of self‐organized criticality. Furthermore, the discussions distinguish the model that could be used to explain wars in the world with those driven by social motives and organically spreading clashes leading to massive violence.   (论文代写)

  The paper reviews the further the classic model of forest fire that can be used as an intuitive analogy with the social clashes. However, it is worth to note and emphasize that there is always a possibility that the underlying process is much more complex than the in the forest fire model. The pioneered computational works incorporating agent based model and the emergence of micro‐macro linkage on this particular issue have also reviewed and referred for more advanced and detailed description on explaining the social conflict and civil violence altogether with the most important works on how to manage and thus inhibit the spreading conflict or in the long term scientific endeavors for building the possible early warning system for social clashes. Apparently this is left to the further challenging works in computational sociology since this paper is modestly just giving glance of the bird’s eye view of the social clashes occurred.(论文代写)

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