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Abstract of the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

2020-05-29 来源: 51Due教员组 类别: 更多范文

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下面为大家整理一篇优秀的essay代写范文 -- Abstract of the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research,本文讲述这项研究的背景是拉丁美洲和亚洲人口的快速增长,这表明越来越多的人将生活在可能受到火山爆发严重影响的地区。由于火山喷发和连锁反应不仅可能造成人员伤亡,而且可能造成经济损失,因此科学家破译自然并解释动乱事件既重要又必要。因此,这项研究有四个主要目标:(1)识别和分类要建立的反复骚动模式; (2)特定类型的火山是否表现出偏好的动荡模式; (3)休止时间是否影响人们偏好的动荡方式; (4)是否可以区分出爆发前的模式和非爆发前的动静模式[P184]

Abstract of the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

The background of this study is the rapid population growth in Latin America and Asia, which indicates that an increasingly number of people will be living in areas where may be seriously affected by eruption of volcanoes. As volcanic eruptions and knock-on effects have potential of causing not only casualties but also economic loss, it is both significant and necessary for scientists to decipher the nature and interpret the episodes of unrest. Therefore, this study has four major objectives: (1) to identify and classify repeated patterns of unrest to establish; (2) whether particular types of volcanoes display preferred patterns of unrest; (3) whether the length of repose affects preferred patterns of unrest; (4) whether pre-eruptive patterns can be distinguished from non-eruptive patterns of unrest.

The statistics used in this study are primarily collected from the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP), and also selected some reported activities from other available information in the literature published by the GVP. Meanwhile, the study also created a database which includes 228 volcanoes. By analyzing the database, this study mainly focuses on four primary sub-aerial types: large caldera, complex, shield, and stratovolcano, and finds out five primary unrest indicators: ground deformation, degassing, changes at a crater lake, thermal anomaly and seismicity. Meanwhile, the definitions for response variables are divided into three types: unrest duration, unrest indicators and inter-eruptive period. Though this study is to identify possible temporal patterns in unrest and analysis the differences between various types of volcanoes, employing standard procedures to calculate the statistics, during the process of statistics analyzing, there is no possibility to avoid biases, such as reporting bias and statistical bias.

The result of the study bases on the categories of definitions for response variables. In the unrest duration, nearly half of the data on reported unrests was missing, and after about one month of reported unrest almost 50% of stratovolcanoes erupted. In the median average duration of large calderas, unrest prior to eruption was about twice as long, and shield volcanoes have a significantly longer unrest period before the onset of eruption, compared to both large calderas and stratovolcanoes. In inter-eruptive period, about 13% of statistics is missing, which covers different volcano types. In the inter-eruptive period, the study finds that the mean length of inter-eruptive period is 18,326 with a large standard deviation of 42,710. It is also indicated that outliers are mainly connected with stratovolcanoes for both pre-eruptive unrests and non-eruptive unrests; large calderas and complex volcanoes for pre-eruptive unrest are also included. Consequently, the classes of unrest are classifies into four types: re-weakening unrest (key feature: deformation and seismic), prolonged unrest (key feature: long-term ground deformation), pulsatory unrest (key feature: seismic activity) and sporadic unrest (key feature: short-lived, intermittent activity and no apparent).

The conclusion of this study is the hypothesis which indicates that with a long period of quiescence between eruptions, volcanoes can undergo prolonged periods of unrest before eruption cannot be proved by the former analysis. Most eruptions during the investigation period occurred within a relatively modest amount of time after the first documented unrest, with a median average unrest duration of 79 days across all volcano types considered, regardless of the length of the inter-eruptive period. Although the findings of this study may not be representative of unrest behavior during centuries, they could have an strong impact on hazard assessment, risk mitigation and scenario planning when the unrest of volcanoes threaten human beings in the future.

 

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