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The us subprime crisis

2018-10-11 来源: 51due教员组 类别: 更多范文

下面为大家整理一篇优秀的assignment代写范文- The us subprime crisis,供大家参考学习,这篇论文讨论了美国次级债危机。所谓次级债,就是次级按揭贷款,指美国向信用分属较低、收入证明缺失、负债较重的人提供贷款。贷款人可在没有资金的情况下购房,仅需声明收入情况,无需提供任何有关偿还能力的证明,其贷款利率比一般的抵押贷款高出2%3%,其利润率是最高的,但风险也是最大的。次级债的证券化也进一步加深了刺激次级债在金融体系中的地位和影响。

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Although samuelson thought, and now the U.S. economy is different from Marx's era of pure free competition in the era of capitalism, it is a free competition and the combination of government intervention in the economy, such as the establishment of the social security system, etc., can be in a certain ease the outbreak of the economic crisis, but this kind of "mixed economy" is still not change the nature of the capitalist market economy, Marx reveals the theory of economic crisis is still suitable for the analysis of the us subprime mortgage crisis. However, due to the continuous development of credit and financial derivatives in the current economy, the financial system is much more complex, which makes the analysis object itself more complex. Moreover, as the process of economic globalization accelerates, the scope of market economy is constantly expanded, which makes the scope of analysis object continuously expanded.

Marx believes that the contradiction of economic crisis stems from the capitalist system itself, namely the contradiction between capitalist private ownership and the socialization of production, which is manifested in two aspects. Second, the unlimited expansion of the productive forces and the broad masses of the people's limited needs of the contradiction. The performance of the direct and the economic crisis is the lack of effective demand and supply glut, in virtual developed economy, relatively perfect social security system can make the wealth from the upper to the lower, to a certain extent, reduce the shrinkage of effective demand, the development of credit makes effective excess demand in the short term, a false prosperity, economic globalization, make domestic effective demand excess can be transferred to the international market, therefore, the modern economic crisis is the worldwide economic crisis, which often from the start of the financial crisis of a particular country. Due to the characteristics of the maintenance and appreciation of real estate, its capital pricing mode makes the relationship between real estate and finance very close. Therefore, a country's financial crisis is often related to real estate. From the historical experience, in the 90 s, the Japanese in the United States, under the force of the yen step by step, on the one hand, Japan's stock market launches, on the other hand, Japan's property bubble is inflating, when appreciation is expected to disappear, Japan's stock market and real estate bubble burst, the resulting entity economy landslide, led to Japan's "lost decade".

Subprime mortgages, or subprime mortgages, are home loans made by the United States to people with low credit, lack of proof of income, and heavy debts. A lender can buy a house without money, simply stating income, without providing any proof of solvency, with a loan interest rate between 2 and 3 per cent higher than a normal mortgage, with the highest margins and greatest risk. The above characteristics of subprime debt determine that it first shows its own characteristics with the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, that is, it shows high yield in the period of continued economic growth and inflation, and high risk and even collapse in the period of economic recession and credit contraction.

First, against the backdrop of international excess liquidity, the us has been relatively flush with money from the influx of petrodollars brought about by the rise in oil prices, while the us has cut interest rates 13 times in a row to stimulate the economy from the terrorist attacks. The excess capital and low interest rate make the cost of real estate loan fall, leading to the rise of real estate price and the expectation of further rise, thus promoting the further rise of real estate price. At this time, the expectation of rising real estate price has the function of self-realization. As interest rates continued to fall, cash-flow refinancing became popular, with borrowers borrowing new and paying back old debt in amounts larger than the original. At a time when house prices are rising, this way gives borrowers a steady stream of money, which in turn increases demand for subprime mortgages. In order to obtain higher loan rates, Banks lowered the threshold of housing loans, because in the expectation of rising housing prices, even if the borrower can not repay the loan, it can sell its house to get higher yield. Some lenders even introduced the loan method of "zero down payment" and "zero document". The lender can buy a home without money, simply stating its income, or even providing any proof of its ability to repay. In this way, as long as housing prices rise rapidly, speculators and Banks remain profitable, the bubble can be sustained for a while, and the size of subprime loans and subprime mortgages snowballed, with subprime mortgages jumping from less than 5 percent of all mortgages to 20 percent in 2006. House prices are also rising, with the average American home price rising by more than 50% in the four years from 2003 to 2006, and more than doubling between 1995 and 2006.

Second, the securitization of subprime mortgages further strengthened the role and influence of subprime mortgages in the financial system. In the United States financial derivatives and financial innovation emerge in endlessly, during the boom times, inflation hedge funds because of the leverage effect thus investment subprime securities derivatives can obtain huge profits, which attracted wide international hedge funds flocked to at the same time, make the effect of the crisis spread to the international scope. In practical terms, European countries and Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are also involved.

Finally, when interest rates rise and credit contracts, bubbles burst and cause a crisis. The rise of real estate prices, the continuous inflation of the economy, will inevitably bring the intervention of national policies. Since 2004, the U.S. has raised interest rates 17 times in a row, raising the cost of buying a home.

Interest rates increase, leading to the loan repayment cost ascend, and also led to the decrease of the value of the collateral on a falling real estate prices, further exacerbating the buyers repayment pressure, while the expectations and further reducing the decrease in the prices of the real estate investment demand, at this point, the real estate prices fall and the accumulation of real estate investment demand also make each other to strengthen sexual response. At this time, Banks, investment Banks and hedge funds investing in real estate subprime derivative products all over the world suffered significant losses. In particular, hedge funds would suffer multiple losses due to the leverage effect. Many commercial Banks, investment Banks, mutual funds and hedge funds, etc. in the whole interest chain were affected. This is reflected in the real estate subprime debt crisis and even further expanded into the financial crisis, which has brought violent fluctuations in the U.S. and even the global currency market and stock market.

How to the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's stock market, mainly depends on the subprime mortgage in the role of the U.S. financial system, the complexity of the U.S. financial system and economic fundamentals in the United States and the United States to the subprime mortgage crisis solving measures and so on many factors, but generally speaking, the influence of the us subprime crisis to our country stock market is mainly expressed through the following channels:

In the short term, it mainly affects the Chinese stock market through affecting investors' psychology and capital inflow. This is most obvious in the short term, and most domestic institutions agree. China's stock market fell for three days in a row, as U.S. and European and Asian stock markets fell sharply in recent days. After massive injections of capital from central Banks such as the United States and Europe to increase liquidity, and the federal reserve lowered the rediscount rate by 50 basis points, the surge of stock markets in Europe, the United States and Asia fully demonstrated the significant psychological impact of the U.S. subprime crisis on Chinese investors in the short term. In addition, as China implements the capital account control policy, it is isolated from the surrounding stock markets to a certain extent. Therefore, under the circumstance of sluggish stock markets in Europe and America, the possibility of short-term hot spots entering Chinese stock markets through various channels cannot be ruled out.

In the long term, the fallout from the subprime crisis will affect China's stock market through international trade and expectations of yuan appreciation. Subordinated debt itself can the size of the component in the U.S. financial system is not large, but by the related chain of creditor's rights debt relations of complex financial system complexity, one of a chain fracture will cause strong reaction of the whole system, therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the U.S. financial system of the credit crunch, then to capital more open countries in Europe and the United States and Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, the instability of the financial system is understandable. This can be seen in the large amounts of incoming liquidity from central Banks in these countries. Therefore, the impact of the subprime crisis cannot be underestimated. The point is that the subprime crisis can cause fundamental changes in America. As the credit contraction appear even the credit crisis, and then bring shrinking consumption, worsen the fundamentals of the economy, so inevitably result in Europe and Japan and South Korea and other Asian countries deteriorating economic fundamentals, as China has high foreign trade dependence, Europe and the United States, Japan and South Korea is China's main export object, therefore is bound to slow China's exports, will affect our country economy growth, dragged down the stock market is inevitable. Another situation is the United States in order to avoid the occurrence of the above situation, the fed may interest has increased liquidity, it can cause the decrease of the China wasn, it will accelerate the yuan appreciation expectations, in the short term can cause hot money inflows, speed up the stock and property markets, but in the long run, the result of the appreciation of the renminbi is to improve the international price of the product in our country, weaken its competition ability, the export of the results is still slow economic growth, on the stock market is still a bad news.

In general, in the short term, the subprime mortgage crisis of the psychological impact of Chinese stock market is bigger, its action can not be ignored, in the long run, whether deterioration of America's economic fundamentals, or speed up the RMB appreciation expectations, the impact on the Chinese stock market is bad, so our government should take measures to actively respond to avoid ups and downs of the stock market, the construction of a harmonious society.

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