自由贸易区对印度农业的影响(1)

英国Dissertation代写论文精选范文：“自由贸易区对印度农业的影响(1)”，这篇论文主要介绍了印度与欧盟就商品、投资、知识产权和政府采购贸易等进行自由贸易协定的谈判过程，并叙述了自由贸易区对于印度农业发展的重要性。

Since 2007, India and EU have been negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) - covering trade in goods and services, investments, intellectual property rights and government procurement - that is fraught with problems. Till now, ten negotiating rounds have been held. The agreement is expected to be finalized by mid-2011.

The India-EU FTA agenda includes massive tariff reductions in all tradable goods including agricultural products. The media reports suggest that India has already agreed to eliminate tariffs on 90 percent of all tradable goods and the ongoing negotiations are aimed at eliminating tariff levels even further.

Currently, India's applied tariff levels on agricultural goods are much higher than those of the EU and therefore the implications of massive tariff reductions and the resultant import surge would be far reaching on Indian agriculture. In addition to drastic tariff reduction, there are several other provisions under the proposed agreement which could also adversely impact India's agricultural economy.

The State of India's Agriculture

Although the share of agriculture in India's GDP is declining over the years (from 30% in the early nineties to 17% in 2008), a large proportion of population is still dependent on this sector for employment and livelihood. The agricultural sector employs nearly 60% of labour force.

Unlike Europe, Indian agriculture is dominated by a large number of small scale holdings. The average farm size in India is just 1.3 hectares, as compared to 67 hectares in the UK and 50 hectares in France. The small farms are essentially subsistence holdings and dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In rural India, women account for more than half of the agricultural workforce. Close to 150 million work as agricultural labourers, many with daily wages below Rs.20 per day.

For the past two decades, Indian agriculture is witnessing a deceleration in growth. One of the most alarming trends is the decline in both public and private investments in agriculture. The agrarian distress is due to several factors including high input costs, lack of cheap credit from institutional sources, dependence on monsoons, lack of infrastructure, volatility in crop prices and low returns. The agrarian distress is further compounded by the lack of non-farm employment opportunities in the rural India. The booming service sector cannot absorb India's surplus labour force. The increasing incidence of farmers' suicides is a symptomatic of a much larger crisis afflicting the agriculture sector.

India's Agricultural Trade

Post-Independence, the thrust of agricultural policy in India was to achieve self-sufficiency and therefore the trade in agricultural goods was rather limited. For several decades, India used specific tariffs and tariff rate quota (TRQ) to protect sensitive agricultural commodities from competitive imports. However, agriculture trade received a major boost in the 1990s with the launch of neoliberal economic reforms and the implementation of Uruguay Round Agreement.

Unlike Brazil and China, India is still a marginal player in world agricultural trade. At present, India accounts for less than 2 per cent of the world trade in agriculture. Agricultural exports comprise 12 percent of India's total exports while the share of agriculture in total imports is 7 percent.

India's agricultural exports consist of three categories: commodities and raw products (low in value but high in volume), semi-raw products (intermediate value and limited volume) and processed products (high value but low in volume). India's agricultural imports mainly consists of intermediate products (accounting for 56% of imports) followed by processed products (31%) and commodities (13%). In recent years, some agricultural exports (e.g., rice and wheat) have witnessed sharp swings depending on the size of the crop and domestic demand.

Since the late-1990s, India's agricultural imports are growing at a much faster rate than exports. Research suggests that post-WTO regime has been more favourable for agricultural imports than exports.

India's agricultural trade with EU is expected to get a tremendous boost with the signing of bilateral trade agreement. The EU is India's largest agricultural export market. Currently, India enjoys a small surplus in its agricultural trade with the EU. India's major agricultural exports to the EU include rice, cashew nuts, coffee, tea and castor oil. Many of these products enter the EU market either duty free (e.g., basmati rice) or with a lower tariff (e.g., 6% for oils). India's major agri-food imports from EU include wheat, Scotch whisky, dried peas, vegetable seeds, wine and olive oil. During 2004-07, wheat was India's top agricultural import from the EU.

The Lure of Affluent Consumer Market

There are several factors which make India an alluring destination for European agricultural exports and investments. Some of the key pull factors include a large and growing consumer market (India's middle class is already larger than the population of the US), greater expenditures on high-value processed food, more exposure to Western-style cuisine, and growing consumption of imported foods or multinational-branded foods made in India.

In particular, middle- and upper-class consumers residing in metropolitan cities (Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and New Delhi) are the key potential customers for European agricultural exporters and investors. Given the saturated European and North American agricultural and food markets, India's affluent urban population is a potentially huge market for EU exports and investments. The urban India is witnessing a boom in demand for dairy products (such as processed milk, cheese, butter and yogurt) due to changing food preferences.

The Tariff Tangle

The European exporters view India's relatively higher applied tariff rates as a major impediment to EU agricultural exports because higher rates raise the price of imported European products.

In the past, India had imposed higher tariffs and other restrictions to protect its agricultural sector.

However, the average applied tariff rates on agricultural products declined considerably from 113 percent in 1991 to 34 percent in 2007. The current applied tariff rates vary substantially (0 to 150 percent) by products. At the end of the Uruguay Round, India had bound its tariffs on most agricultural products. India's average bound tariff (maximum applicable rates) for agriculture products is 114 percent. But there are significant differences between bound and applied tariffs (see Table 1).

The EU exporters have raised concerns over the large difference between higher bound tariff rates and lower applied tariff rates for many agricultural products which enables India to alter its applied tariffs without violating the WTO commitments. They consider tariff-rate variability as a major obstacle in European agricultural exports to India. However, from an Indian perspective, the flexibility to adjust tariff rates is very important to balance the interests of farmers and consumers of agricultural products in response to changing market conditions. Between 2005 and 209, India has made frequent changes in applied tariff rates for many agricultural products including wheat, rice and pulses. For instance, the tariff rate on wheat was lowered from 50 percent to 0 percent in 2006 in response to poor harvests. The tariff rate was returned to 50 percent in 2009 when domestic production increased and prices stabilized. Similarly, the tariff rate on rice was lowered from 70 percent to zero in 2008 in reaction to rising rice price. The tariff rate was returned to 70 percent in 2009 when prices stabilized. In addition, India has imposed export restrictions in the form of export bans and taxes to tame food price inflation.

Since FTAs formally "locks in" tariff rates, India should retain all options to alter tariff rates in response to changing market scenario. The weak safeguard mechanisms under the bilateral trade agreement cannot protect against a sudden surge in agricultural imports from Europe.

Moreover, one cannot ignore the fact that a decline in the applied tariff rates would also reduce customs revenue. Despite a decline in the average applied tariff rates since 1990s, customs duties remain one of the most important sources of revenue to the central government.

Investments in Food Sector

Since EU and India are also negotiating investment liberalization provisions under the proposed trade agreement, these provisions would enable European agribusiness firms to expand their presence in India's food and agriculture sector. European firms can directly access Indian consumers by undertaking direct investments and thereby overcoming tariffs and non-trade barriers (NTBs) that may restrict EU exports. The direct investments in the Indian markets would also enable European firms to take advantage of local commodity products and cheap labour.

Even though foreign firms are not allowed to own agricultural land under Indian regulations, yet they have found lucrative opportunities to invest in the broader food sector.Since 2005, a significant amount of foreign direct investment from Europe has entered into India in food processing, alcoholic beverages, and restaurants. Apart from lucrative opportunities, E uropean firms face no regulatory obstacles to invest in these parts of India's food sector. On the other hand, contract farming provides an opportunity to overcome regulatory obstacles to FDI in agriculture sector.

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