Inertia, Interaction and Clustering in Demand--论文代写范文精选

消费者经常面对不完整的信息,以及如何充分利用他们消费。此外,消费者似乎形成习惯,根据经验法则和过去的行为来指导未来的选择。在这篇paper代写范文中,通过个人消费者的动力学模型，并分析其对商品需求的分布的影响。

Abstract 
We present a discrete choice model of consumption that incorporates two empirically validated aspects of consumer behaviour: inertia in consumption and interaction among consumers. We specify the interaction structure as a regular lattice with consumers interacting only with immediate neighbours. We investigate the equilibrium behaviour of the resulting system and show analytically that for a large range of initial conditions clustering in economic behaviour emerges and persists indefinitely. Short-run behaviour of the model is investigated numerically. This exercise indicates that equilibrium properties of the system can predict a short-run behaviour of the model quite accurately. 
Key Words: Clustering • Interaction • Habits • Consumer choice 

Introduction 
One of the challenges in modelling consumer behaviour lies on the observation that consumption is in many ways a social activity. This has been observed both in the context of bandwagon behaviour or conspicuous consumption (Liebenstein 1950; Smith 1776; Veblen 1899), but also in the context of learning to consume (Witt 2001). Consumers often face incomplete information both about what is available, and how to get the most out of the goods they consume. In both cases agents rely on friends and neighbours as sources of information. In addition, though, consumers appear to form habits (Guariglia and Rossi 2002), depending on rules of thumb and past behaviour to guide future choices. 

In this paper we model the dynamics of individual consumer behaviour and analyze its implications for the distribution of the demand for goods over a social space. There are empirical studies of this issue, reporting on the impact of social space on demand (e.g. Birke and Swann 2006), but those papers tend to explain their results entirely through network externalities. In this paper we use more general constructs and show that the network structure of social interactions can be reflected in demand. Key to the consumer’s decision-making, and thus to the dynamics of demand, is the consumer’s ongoing, or repeated evaluation of her alternatives. In our model valuations are based on two things: the consumer’s own consumption history; and the consumer’s neighbours’ consumption histories. 

Consumers repeatedly decide which products to buy, and learning by consuming increases the future valuation of a product for a consumer. Consumers also routinely interact with their neighbours and exchange information about products on the market. Based on these two distinct information streams consumers update their valuations for each product and in response (possibly) change their behaviour. From this starting point we model two aspects of consumer behaviour: inertia in consumption; and local influence of peers through interaction. The model can be interpreted in two ways.1 One is to say that there is an imperfect informational structure in the economy and consumers are aware of that fact. 

They try to reduce uncertainty in the decision process (Jacoby et al. 1994) by using two sources of information. One is the information they receive through own experience. As consumers have the better understanding of the value of the goods they have already consumed, consuming the same good avoids possible disappointment. The other is the information they receive from their social networks about the available goods. Information gathered from “friends” can similarly reduce the risk of disappointment. The second interpretation of the two parts of consumption dynamics would be that people form habits for the goods they consume, but that there is also an interdependence in the utilities of nearby consumers. With regard to habit formation, we assume that in the consumption process a consumer forms some special skills for using the product and as a result receives higher utility every time she consumes the same product. 

Interdependencies arise because people get higher utility if their consumption bundles are similar to those of their neighbours. This is similar to the effect of a “peer group” discussed by Bordieu (1984) and addressed in a formal model of consumption by Cowan et al. (1997). We analyze the long-run (equilibrium) dynamics of a population of consumers subject to these two forces and show that spatial clustering in economic behaviour emerges as a stable, long run equilibrium pattern for a large set of initial conditions. Additionally though, analysis of the short-run behaviour indicates that equilibrium properties of present complex system can predict the short-run dynamics of the model quite accurately. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The first section briefly reviews related literature. The second section presents the model. In the third section we present the analysis of the long- and short-run behaviour of the model. The fourth section presents one particular extension to the model. The last section of the paper concludes(论文代写)

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